Monthly Futures Seasonality, April 2024: Stocks May Not Be Done Yet
Monthly Futures Seasonality, April 2024: Stocks May Not Be Done Yet
It's a generational bull market—and it might not be over soon
- The market rallied in 18 of 22 weeks to gain at least 27%.
- It is a particularly good month for U.S. equity markets.
- April is a very bullish month for the S&P 500, on a seasonal basis.
Five consecutive months of gains from November through March have solidified a generational bull market.
Never has the market rallied in 18 of 22 weeks to gain at least 27%—that may still have more gains to come. A five-month run of gains to end a year and to start a new one is an uncommon occurrence: it has only happened 11 times previously for the S&P 500 since 1950.
The results have been consistent thereafter, with the S&P 500 rising for the rest of the year each of those 11 times, producing an average gain of 11.9% through the remaining nine months of the year.
And for April itself? It is a particularly good month for U.S. equity markets, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 having positive average returns over the past 10 and 20 years, with April being the second-best month for both indexes over the past 20 years. Alongside the continued strong technical stature in U.S. equity markets, the historic bull run may still be in its middle innings.
Monthly futures seasonality summary: April 2024
Monthly seasonality in S&P 500 (/ES)
April is a very bullish month for /ES, on a seasonal basis. Over the past 10 years, it has been the fourth-best month of the year for the index, averaging a gain of 1.81%. Over the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year, averaging a gain of 2.27%.
Monthly seasonality in the Nasdaq 100 (/NQ)
April is a very bullish month for /NQ, on a seasonal basis. Over the past 10 years, it has been the fifth-best month for the index, averaging a gain of 1.68%. Over the past 20 years, it has been the second-best month, averaging a gain of 2.32%.
Monthly seasonality in Treasury notes (/ZN)
April is a bullish month for /ZN, on a seasonal basis. Over the past 10 years, it has been the fifth-best month of the year for the notes, averaging a gain of 2.71%. Over the past 20 years, it has been the fifth-best month of the year, averaging a gain of 1.78%.
Monthly seasonality in Treasury bonds (/ZB)
April is a bullish month for /ZB, on a seasonal basis. Over the past 10 years, it has been the third-best month of the year for the bonds, averaging a gain of 3.07%. Over the past 20 years, it has been the third-best month of the year, averaging a gain of 1.94%.
Monthly seasonality in crude oil (/CL)
April is a very bullish month for /CL, on a seasonal basis. Over the past 10 years, it has been the second-best month of the year for crude oil, averaging a gain of 5.79%. Over the past 20 years, it has been the second-best month of the year, averaging a gain of 4.1%.
Monthly seasonality in gold (/GC)
April is a bullish month for /GC, on a seasonal basis. Over the past 10 years, it has been the third-best month of the year for the precious metal, averaging a gain of 1.61%. Over the past 20 years, it has been the sixth-best month of the year, averaging a gain of 1.07%.
Monthly seasonality in the euro (/6E)
April is a very bullish month for /6E, on a seasonal basis. Over the past 10 years, it has been the second-best month of the year for the pair, averaging a gain of 0.49%.
Over the past 20 years, it has been the second-best month of the year, averaging a gain of 0.58%. Note: the time series for euro futures (/6E) does not extend beyond 2018; the data series has been backfilled using EUR/USD spot rates as a proxy.
Monthly seasonality in the VIX (/VX)
April is a bearish month for /VX, on a seasonal basis. Over the past 10 years, it has been the fifth-worst month of the year for volatility, averaging, a loss of 2.62%. Over the past 20 years, it has been the third worst-month. averaging a loss of -1.3%.
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
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