Luckbox Digest

An Unlikely (But Not Impossible) Banking Crisis, Our 2024 Predictions and Grammy Surprises

By:James Melton

A weekly look inside Luckbox magazine

Luckbox winter cover

Could we be headed for a banking crisis?

At the end of January, New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) reported worse-than-expected Q4 earnings, triggering a selloff in the company’s shares and reigniting concerns over a broader regional banking crisis.

Regional banks slump on NYCB results

Currently, there doesn’t appear to be the same degree of risk in the financial system as there was before the 2008 collapse. But investors got a harsh reminder that significant risks remain in the system when NYCB reported some ugly numbers. Unexpectedly, the bank swung to a quarterly loss of $0.36/share, as compared to the pre-earnings expectation of a $0.27/share profit.

During 2008-2009, complications in the banking sector eventually spiraled into a full-blown financial crisis, triggering corrections in many parts of the financial markets. That doesn’t look likely today with the major market indices trading at fresh all-time highs, and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) trading in the low teens. But back in 2007, the VIX was also trading in the low teens and the S&P 500 was cresting toward a fresh all-time high. Read the whole story.

What will 2024 look like?

We're already wrong about the Super Bowl, but our March rate-cut prediction is looking good. Respect for the science of forecasting doesn’t prohibit Luckbox from engaging in the fun (and folly) of prediction. And we did some of that in our Winter edition. As baseball's spring training approaches, we're sticking with our expectation that the Atlanta Braves will beat the Baltimore Orioles in six games in the 2024 World Series.

We can’t promise outcomes. But all of us can confirm our convictions, prepare ourselves mentally and position ourselves financially for the year ahead. So, have fun with it. Read the predictions.

Surprises at the Grammys

The Rockhound, Kendall Polidori, was pleasantly surprised by the Grammy Awards predictions she got wrong, She offers a recap of who won and discusses some of the exciting surprises that unfolded during the Feb. 4 live broadcast.

boygenius, taylor swift and jack antonoff
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 04: (L-R) Phoebe Bridgers, Julien Baker, and Lucy Dacus of Boygenius, winner of the "Best Rock Performance" award for "Not Strong Enough", the "Best Rock Song" award for “Not Strong Enough”, and the "Best Alternative Music Album" award for "The Record", pose with Taylor Swift, winner of the "Album of the Year" and "Best Pop Vocal Album" awards for "Midnights", and Jack Antonoff, winner of "Producer of the Year, Non-Classical", pose in the press room during the 66th GRAMMY Awards at Arena on February 04, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Alberto E. Rodriguez/Getty Images for The Recording Academy)

Among the highlights, Polidori says, were Tracey Chapman performing her song Fast Car with Luke Combs, who covered the song last year. And Taylor Swift defied expectations when she announced her brand-new album, The Tortured Poets Department, will be out April 19. Nearly all Swifties were expecting her to announce news about Reputation (Taylor’s Version) album instead. Read the whole story.

Read the latest edition of Luckbox magazine here.

Not receiving Luckbox? Subscribe for free at

James Melton is managing editor of Luckbox magazine. @JDMeltonWriter

For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro.

Trade with a better broker, open a tastytrade account today. tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. are separate but affiliated companies.

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.

Related Posts

tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. tastylive is not in the business of transacting securities trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client’s situation or investment objectives. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.  Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors.  Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read the applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange-Traded Options Risk Disclosure found on

tastytrade, Inc. ("tastytrade”) is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, NFA, and SIPC. tastytrade was previously known as tastyworks, Inc. (“tastyworks”). tastytrade offers self-directed brokerage accounts to its customers. tastytrade does not give financial or trading advice, nor does it make investment recommendations. You alone are responsible for making your investment and trading decisions and for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of tastytrade’s systems, services or products. tastytrade is a wholly-owned subsidiary of tastylive, Inc.

tastytrade has entered into a Marketing Agreement with tastylive (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade. tastytrade and Marketing Agent are separate entities with their own products and services. tastylive is the parent company of tastytrade.

tastycrypto is provided solely by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. tasty Software Solutions, LLC is a separate but affiliate company of tastylive, Inc. Neither tastylive nor any of its affiliates are responsible for the products or services provided by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. Cryptocurrency trading is not suitable for all investors due to the number of risks involved. The value of any cryptocurrency, including digital assets pegged to fiat currency, commodities, or any other asset, may go to zero.

© copyright 2013 - 2024 tastylive, Inc. All Rights Reserved.  Applicable portions of the Terms of Use on apply.  Reproduction, adaptation, distribution, public display, exhibition for profit, or storage in any electronic storage media in whole or in part is prohibited under penalty of law, provided that you may download tastylive’s podcasts as necessary to view for personal use. tastylive was previously known as tastytrade, Inc. tastylive is a trademark/servicemark owned by tastylive, Inc.