An Unlikely (But Not Impossible) Banking Crisis, Our 2024 Predictions and Grammy Surprises
An Unlikely (But Not Impossible) Banking Crisis, Our 2024 Predictions and Grammy Surprises
By:James Melton
A weekly look inside Luckbox magazine
Could we be headed for a banking crisis?
At the end of January, New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) reported worse-than-expected Q4 earnings, triggering a selloff in the company’s shares and reigniting concerns over a broader regional banking crisis.
Currently, there doesn’t appear to be the same degree of risk in the financial system as there was before the 2008 collapse. But investors got a harsh reminder that significant risks remain in the system when NYCB reported some ugly numbers. Unexpectedly, the bank swung to a quarterly loss of $0.36/share, as compared to the pre-earnings expectation of a $0.27/share profit.
During 2008-2009, complications in the banking sector eventually spiraled into a full-blown financial crisis, triggering corrections in many parts of the financial markets. That doesn’t look likely today with the major market indices trading at fresh all-time highs, and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) trading in the low teens. But back in 2007, the VIX was also trading in the low teens and the S&P 500 was cresting toward a fresh all-time high. Read the whole story.
What will 2024 look like?
We're already wrong about the Super Bowl, but our March rate-cut prediction is looking good. Respect for the science of forecasting doesn’t prohibit Luckbox from engaging in the fun (and folly) of prediction. And we did some of that in our Winter edition. As baseball's spring training approaches, we're sticking with our expectation that the Atlanta Braves will beat the Baltimore Orioles in six games in the 2024 World Series.
We can’t promise outcomes. But all of us can confirm our convictions, prepare ourselves mentally and position ourselves financially for the year ahead. So, have fun with it. Read the predictions.
Surprises at the Grammys
The Rockhound, Kendall Polidori, was pleasantly surprised by the Grammy Awards predictions she got wrong, She offers a recap of who won and discusses some of the exciting surprises that unfolded during the Feb. 4 live broadcast.
Among the highlights, Polidori says, were Tracey Chapman performing her song Fast Car with Luke Combs, who covered the song last year. And Taylor Swift defied expectations when she announced her brand-new album, The Tortured Poets Department, will be out April 19. Nearly all Swifties were expecting her to announce news about Reputation (Taylor’s Version) album instead. Read the whole story.
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James Melton is managing editor of Luckbox magazine. @JDMeltonWriter
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