S&P 500: From 19% Down to Record Highs in Six Charts
S&P 500: From 19% Down to Record Highs in Six Charts
By:Kai Zeng
Making sense of the market’s quickest fear-to-greed flip in decades
The S&P 500's remarkable 86-day rally to new highs represents the third-fastest recovery since 2000, featuring unprecedented normalization of the VIX and minimal pullbacks during a 23% climb from bottom to top.
The S&P 500 has reached $6,300, hitting new all-time highs and surpassing February's previous record by 1%. What makes this achievement remarkable is the speed of recovery — the market climbed back in less than three months, one of the quickest recoveries in recent history.
Rally performance breakdown
This 86-day rally delivered a 23% gain from bottom to top with exceptional consistency throughout the move. The largest pullback during the entire rally was just 6% (April 9-21), demonstrating unusual stability for such a strong upward trajectory. This level of consistency is rare in major market rallies, where volatility typically increases during significant moves. For context, the previous correction dropped 19% from February to April before this recovery began.
Historical context
We analyzed similar market events using rigorous criteria:
- Gains of at least 20% two months
- No pullback larger than 6%
- No overlapping periods
This methodology ensures we're comparing truly exceptional rallies, not just ordinary market moves. The search yielded only 11 comparable events in the past 20 years, highlighting the rarity of these recoveries.
This rally ranks as the third-fastest rebound from a market bottom, trailing only the 2009 financial crisis recovery and 2020's pandemic rebound. While smaller in magnitude than the historical median of 31% over 206 days, its speed places it among notable recoveries in market history.
Volatility tells the story
The volatility pattern tells perhaps the most compelling story of this rally. The initial spike in fear that preceded it was the third-largest and fastest after the 2008 financial crisis and 2020 pandemic crash, indicating significant distress in the market.
However, the subsequent decline was record-breaking in its speed. The 36-point drop in the VIX in 90 days was the fastest on record, outpacing even the celebrated 2020 and 2008 recoveries that traders still reference today.
Expanding to a 365-day window reveals more context. This decline in the VIX ranks as the second-largest after 2020, while remaining the fastest in two decades — showing how quickly fear was transformed into confidence.
Key Takeaways
This rally demonstrates three critical characteristics. First, it has been remarkably smooth with only minor interruptions. Second, the normalization of the VIX suggests genuine restoration of confidence instead of just temporary relief. Finally, while this rally remains smaller than historical averages, it hasn't finished yet — a crucial consideration for traders planning positions and timing decisions.
Kai Zeng, director of the research team and head of Chinese content at tastylive, has 20 years of experience in markets and derivatives trading. He cohosts several live shows, including From Theory to Practice and Building Blocks. @kai_zeng1
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