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Amazon Trades Near All-Time Highs Ahead of Q4 Earnings: What to Expect

By:Thomas Westwater

Analysts expect $187 billion in revenue, up from last quarter’s $159 billion

  • Amazon is set to report earnings Thursday, after the market close.
  • Earnings are expected to increase from a year ago as the stock price trades near record highs.
  • The options market expects Amazon to move +/- 15 points, or 6% of Monday’s stock price.

Amazon (AMZN) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal earnings on Thursday, after the market close. A conference call for investors will take place at 4:00 p.m. CST.

The earnings announcement, which represents one of the biggest releases for the U.S. market, comes amid a volatile market. S&P 500 futures sold off sharply in early morning trading on Monday as the market digested tariff headlines, which sent the S&P 500 VIX, otherwise known as the market’s fear gauge, sharply higher.

Amazon managed to weather the storm and turned positive through afternoon trading despite the broader market remaining in the red. The relative outperformance comes after Amazon posted new record highs over the past week, showing that investors remain bullish on the stock despite broader market headwinds.

January saw Amazon stock climb 8.3%, extending a healthy performance over the past year that sent its stock price up 44%, outpacing the S&P 500’s 23% return. Investors have been bullish since Trump’s election victory, seeing an easing of regulations and reduction in corporate income taxes as a tailwind for prices.

Amazon even held up relatively well to last week’s DeepSeek news that affected market sentiment in companies focused on artificial intelligence. Besides investing in its own proprietary AI, Amazon acts as an intermediary and has already employed DeepSeek in its customer base through Amazon Bedrock and Amazon SageMaker AI.


What do investors expect?

Analysts expect Amazon to post earnings per share (EPS) of $1.49 for the October to December period, according to TradingView. That would be up from an EPS of $1.00 a year ago. Last quarter, Amazon reported EPS of $1.43.

Revenue is expected to cross the wires at $187.3 billion, which would compare to $170 billion a year ago. It would also be up from last quarter’s $159 billion in revenue.

Amazon has beaten EPS expectations every time over the last four quarters, although it’s missed on revenue one time. Still, that is a solid track record compared to companies in the broader market.

The average one-year price target for the stock is 252.18, representing a 6% increase from Monday’s 238.78 stock price. Analysts are mainly bullish on the stock, with 70 strong buy or buy ratings. Three issued hold ratings and only one gave it a sell rating.


Trading Amazon earnings

Amazon traded with an implied volatility rank (IVR) of 68.5, meaning that volatility is elevated compared to the past 12 months of trading. The options market is pricing in an expected move of +/- 14.98 points, or 6.3% of Monday’s stock price.

The technical structure for Amazon is on the bullish side, with prices holding above a recent swing high at 233 from December. A break below that level would threaten the upward sloping 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which has supported prices since early October. Alternatively, Amazon is near all-time highs and a move higher could see additional strength come into the stock.

Given the heightened volatility, traders looking to get long could sell a put spread with the short at 232.5, which would work out if Amazon holds above the December swing high and has a positive to neutral reaction to earnings.


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Thomas Westwatera tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. #@fxwestwater

For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro. 

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