Apple Earnings Preview: Can AAPL Beat the Low Expectations?

Apple Earnings Preview: Can AAPL Beat the Low Expectations?

By:Mike Butler

Apple Earnings Expectations

When does Apple report Q2 2023 earnings?

Apple (AAPL) reports quarterly earnings on May 4th after the market closes, and both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) expectations are lower than the previous quarter. This brings an interesting narrative to the table, as the tech giant could either blow the low expectations out of the water or come in as expected – how the market perceives this information will be interesting to witness.

Apple’s EPS is expected to come in at $1.43, on an estimated $92.84 billion in revenue.

AAPL Stock Performance This Year

AAPL Stock Performance This Year

AAPL has surged almost 40% from the start of the year, with very few blips on the radar while almost doubling the performance of the NASDAQ ($QQQ) in the same period – the stock has climbed from $130.28 to $170.35 on May 2nd - will the stock continue to climb higher or falter with lower earnings expectations from the previous quarter?

Apple (AAPL) Earnings Expected Move

Based on the implied volatility of the weekly options cycle, we can see what the market expects from AAPL through Friday – the expected move for the rest of the week is +-$5.60:

AAPL Earnings Expected Move

With such a low expected move relative to the closing stock price of $168.54 on May 2nd, we can deduce that the market isn’t really expecting a big move from this announcement – this is unlike some of the other tech stocks that have already reported.

This earnings announcement does account for about 50% of the expected range through June 16th, which is a large chunk given the circumstances.

The options market expects AAPL to have a range of +-$27.21 through mid-December.

Apple (AAPL) Earnings Preview Summary

  • Apple stock reports earnings on May 4th after the market closes at 3pm CST
  • Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to come in at $1.43
  • Quarterly revenue is expected to be $92.84 billion
  • The option market’s expected move for the week is +-$5.60 which contains the earnings announcement
    • This is just over 3% of the stock price, which is relatively low for an earnings announcement

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