Applied Materials (AMAT) Earnings: Semiconductors, AI Buildouts, What to Watch
Applied Materials (AMAT) Earnings: Semiconductors, AI Buildouts, What to Watch
By:Gus Downing
Applied Materials (AMAT) is set to report their Q4 FY2025 earnings on Thursday, November 13, after market close.
Analyst consensus estimates call for an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.10 and revenue of $6.7 billion.
Order and backlog quality, AI buildouts, and domestic policy on exports to China are the hottest topics for AMAT headed into this call.
Where AMAT Stands Now
AMAT has had an excellent 2025 thus far, currently trading up over 40% year-to-date (YTD). Even more remarkable is that all of AMAT’s 2025 gains have materialized strictly in the last two months; as recently as September 9, AMAT was trading down on the year.
Despite the stagnation for the first three-quarters of the calendar year, AMAT has posted great numbers, beating consensus EPS estimates in each of their first three earnings calls in this 2025 fiscal year.
The recent rally in AMAT has been spurred by sector-wide increased capital expenditure on semiconductors for AI applications. More AI servers mean more wafers, more advanced packaging, and more inspections, all of which AMAT sells into.
Despite the recent rally, headwinds started to emerge in October, particularly in the case of tightening domestic regulations on exports to China. The company warned that these tighter rules could reduce revenue by $710 million as they put a stop to their exports until they can acquire new licenses.
What to Watch on Thursday
EPS and revenue numbers, along with forward guidance, will obviously be paramount in how AMAT shares respond to this report; however, there are a number of other variables that investors will be eager to hear updates on. Most important among this group are orders and backlog quality, AI buildouts, and domestic policy on Chinese exports.
Demand from AI foundries has given AMAT a consistent and healthy series of orders to this point, and whether that order flow and backlog can stay consistent is a major question for investors. It would also be a bullish variable if AMAT announces that they are converting their backlog to revenue quicker than they have in previous quarters, and vice versa.
Additionally, any information on advanced packaging and inspection tied to AI nodes has the propensity to move shares. Investors want to be able to gauge how durable AI-driven capital expenditure is into 2026, and any clues given regarding that demand could have an impact.
Lastly is domestic policy on exports to China. Investors will have their eyes and ears open for management’s read-through on export licensing, shipment timing, and Taiwanese, Korean, or Japanese exports that could partially or fully offset the lost revenue from China. Recent headlines also include temporary easing on some Chinese export curbs for critical materials, which could impact supply confidence and, consequently, move shares.
The options market is pricing in a $15 move in either direction for AMAT, which would constitute about 6.5% of their current share price. While a 6.5% move would not be parabolic by any stretch of the imagination, a 6.5% move to the upside would mean all-time highs for AMAT.
Longer View: Turning Demand into Durable Growth
Looking into 2026 and beyond, the bull case for AMAT is very clear: AI datacenters keep scaling, which lifts semiconductor equipment demand across deposition, etch, patterning, and packaging. The bear case is even clearer: slower orders or longer export and licensing delays.
At this time, the bull case seems slightly more likely, especially amid a seemingly easing trade relationship with China. However, the risks presented in the bear case are very real, and after a 40% run in just over two months, it would not be surprising to see AMAT shares take a breather sometime in 2026.
With a 6.5% implied move ahead of this earnings call, the options market feels fairly certain that a lot of what’s to come tomorrow is already baked into the share price. However, the 45% expected move into the end of 2026 indicates that after tomorrow, investors have no idea what’s in store for AMAT.
Whether you’re looking for a short-term earnings play or a long-term leap, proceed with caution.
Gus Downing is host of the tastylive Network show Risk and Reward. @GainsByGus
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