Boeing Q2 Earnings: Aerospace Rebound or Continued Turbulence?
Boeing Q2 Earnings: Aerospace Rebound or Continued Turbulence?
By:Gus Downing
Watch for deliveries, trade risks and key financial signals
- Boeing is scheduled to hold its Q2 FY2025 earnings call before the market opens tomorrow.
- The company is having an amazing year with its stock up over 35%.
- Critical factors in the earnings call include tariffs, certification and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) restrictions.
Revenue, deliveries and the numbers to know
There’s no shortage of analysts covering Boeing (BA) ahead of the company’s earnings call tomorrow, and none of them predict an earnings per share (EPS) that’s even close to positive. Consensus estimates call for an EPS of -$1.40, which is actually a massive improvement from Q2 of 2024, when Boeing reported a loss of $2.90 per share.
Despite the expected negative EPS, the consensus estimate for Boeing’s revenue in Q2 is $22.15 billion, which suggests year-over-year growth of about 30%, driven mainly by increased delivery volume. Additionally, its Defense and Global Services revenues are expected to grow over 6%.
The company delivered 104 commercial jets in Q2, including 60 in the month of June alone, bringing total deliveries in 2025 to 280. It’s currently sitting on an order backlog totaling $545 billion, which represents 11.5 years of production capacity. Close to 75% of those orders are tied to 737 MAX aircraft.
Momentum builders: What could push Boeing higher
BA is having an excellent year, currently up ~35% year-to-date (YTD), and a number of factors could help it maintain that momentum. First and foremost, Q2 delivered growth over 63% year-over-year in commercial deliveries, recording its second-best quarter since 2018 in that regard.
Trade-driven orders, including recent major deals in Japan, the UK and Indonesia, are bolstering the company’s backlog of orders despite lingering tariffs. The Federal Aviation Authority (FAA) has also been easing restrictions on the 737 MAX production cap, which currently sits at 38 per month. If safety and quality metrics continue to hold up, the FAA has expressed interest in raising this cap to 42 per month.
Additionally, significant progress in 737 MAX 7/10 and 777X certification is expected by the end of the year. If that happens it would accelerate production even further. Any commentary on these certifications has the potential to move the stock tomorrow.
Potential pitfalls for Boeing
While there’s no shortage of bullish factors that could push BA higher, investors will have their ears open for risks during the earnings call. Chief among these concerns are trade tensions with China, which remain a headwind for the company. Deliveries to China did resume in June, but the situation is shaky, and Chinese orders represent about 10% of Boeing’s backlog.
Additionally, high tariffs on aluminum and steel are inflating input costs, which could put pressure on Boeing’s margins if they’re not offset somehow. Beyond this, labor and quality control risks remain unresolved. Union negotiations and FAA scrutiny began after the 2024 Alaskan Airlines Max 9 door-plug incident and persist to this day.
Volatility, valuation, and what traders are watching
Boeing shares jumped 4% on the announcement of the company’s record delivery numbers earlier this month, which reflects investor confidence but also indicates that information has already been fully baked into the share price.
Despite losses, analysts still see momentum toward profitability. Most forecasts call for a stronger Q2 led by deliveries, with expected free cash flow over $1 billion — a stark contrast from Q1’s $2.3 billion cash burn.
With over 11 years of production capacity in its order backlog, Boeing remains one of the few industrials with clear multi-year visibility. Buybacks and dividends are likely to normalize once stable cash flow resumes.
Implied move expectations remain elevated given volatility around production delays and guidance shifts. Volatility skew around the release is likely. While Boeing has had an amazing year so far, what will happen in this earnings call is anybody’s guess.
Gus Downing is host of the tastylive Network show Risk and Reward. @GainsByGus
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