Coinbase to Report Q4 Earnings: Did the Bitcoin Boom Fuel Profits?
Coinbase to Report Q4 Earnings: Did the Bitcoin Boom Fuel Profits?
The $1.8 billion revenue target and Bitcoin's surge may drive the stock price to new highs
- Coinbase is scheduled to report earnings tomorrow.
- A sharp increase in bitcoin prices during the reporting period is expected to boost revenue.
- The options market is pricing in an expected move of +/- 21.21 points.
Coinbase (COIN)—the cryptocurrency exchange platform—is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal earnings after the market closes tomorrow. A conference call is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. CST.
The reporting period for Coinbase’s Q4 period ran from October to December. During that time, bitcoin prices (/BTC) rose 47% and reached fresh all-time highs. The election win by President Donald Trump caused prices to rise as traders expected regulations around cryptocurrencies to be relaxed. This wouldn’t be the first time higher Bitcoin prices have helped Coinbase.
The jubilant mood in the crypto space during November led to a rally in COIN, with the stock rising over 60% and matching its best month on record, which occurred back in January 2023. COIN carved out a new all-time high in December before profit takers came in and pushed prices back down. However, a better-than-expected earnings report could put the stock price back on the warpath.
What do investors expect?
According to TradingView, analysts anticipate COIN will report $1.99 in earnings per share (EPS) on $1.8 billion in revenue. That would be up from an EPS of $1.04 on $954 million in revenue a year ago. Last quarter, COIN reported an EPS of $0.28 on $1.2 billion in revenue.
Analyst ratings are mixed on the stock but lean toward the bullish side. It has 12 strong buy and buy ratings and 15 hold ratings. There are only two sell and strong sell ratings.
The one-year price target among analysts was at 301.74 as of today. That would be about an 11% gain from the current stock price. However, some analysts project a price as high as 400, or a 47% gain.
Trading COIN earnings
COIN traded with an implied volatility rank (IVR) of 26.2, which means volatility is somewhat subdued compared to the past 12 months of trading. The options market puts an expected move of +/- 21.22 points, or a 7.9% move from the current stock price. That is on the upper end of the average 5%-10% move for S&P 500 companies through earnings.
The stock is trading between its December swing high and January low, although prices are closer to the lows traded last month. The 240 level, which marks the January low, could offer a level of support if earnings disappoint and the stock sells off. Alternatively, bulls will likely target the December high near 350 on an impressive earnings report, although that would require a 30% climb in prices.
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. #@fxwestwater
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