Costco Earnings: What to Expect When COST Reports

Costco (COST) is scheduled to report earnings on Thursday, March 5, after the market close.
Traders expect earnings per share (EPS) of $4.55 on $69.29 billion in revenue.
Options on Costco show an expected move of +/- 32.97 points a day ahead of earnings.

Costco to report quarterly figures on Thursday, as market watchers assess consumer health and state of tariff lawsuits

Costco (COST) is scheduled to report quarterly fiscal results on Thursday, March 5, after the market close. The membership-based wholesaler is one of the largest retailers in the United States, and its earnings figures and management guidance are seen as a proxy for the health of the U.S. economy.

Refund mechanism unresolved on tariffs after SCOTUS decision

One thing investors are considering is the recent case from the Supreme Court that held broad IEEPA tariff authority sits under the authority of Congress, not the executive. Still, litigation continues, and refunds, if they ever come at all, could be at least months away. So, while Costco secured a legal win, it isn’t a financial benefit just yet. That said, there is likely little impact from this issue on earnings. About a third of Costco’s sales in the U.S. are from imported goods.

Sales metrics to watch

Last quarter, Costco’s first-quarter results showed net sales growth of 8.2% from the year prior. Even with headwinds from tariffs, the retailer posted an increase in operating income while holding margins steady.

Costco uses membership fees to keep prices low. As usual, they’ll be an important metric to examine in its results. Last quarter, membership fees rose 14% to $1.3 billion. Total cardholders rose to 145.9 million, a 5.1% year-over-year increase. Costco is seeing increased signups from younger consumers, as people search out value amid an uncertain economic backdrop.

Digital sales were another strong point, with digitally enabled comparable sales rising 20.5% from a year prior. Website traffic also increased 24% over the same period.

Prices for items like beef, coffee and seafood increased during Q1, but overall inflation remained consistent compared to recent quarters, according to management.

What do traders expect

According to TradingView, analysts expect Costco to report earnings per share (EPS) of $4.55 on $69.29 billion in revenue. A year ago, EPS was at $4.02 on $63.72 billion in revenue.

Costco has beaten analysts’ expectations in three straight quarters, while the win streak for revenue is at five straight quarters.

The average one-year price target among 29 analysts stood at 1,068, representing a 6% increase from Wednesday’s 1,008.70 price.

Trading COST earnings

Costco traded with an implied volatility rank (IVR) of 36.7 as of Wednesday, March 4. That means volatility is lower compared to the prior twelve months. Options on Costco show an expected move of +/- 32.97 points, which equates to a 3.3% move in the stock price.

Costco has performed well since the start of the year, gaining about 17% compared to a nearly unchanged S&P 500 over the same period. Technically, COST is trading in an uptrend defined by support from the 9- and 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). A strong earnings report could help push prices higher to attack the February swing high at 1,028.44, with a move higher opening trading levels that go back to June 2025.

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