CrowdStrike Q4 Earnings: Key Levels and What to Watch
CrowdStrike Q4 Earnings: Key Levels and What to Watch
- CrowdStrike earnings are scheduled to drop on Tuesday, March 3, after the market close.
- Analysts expect earnings per share of $1.10 on $1.3 billion in revenue, according to TradingView.
- The options market is pricing in an expected move of +/- 29.94 points.
CrowdStrike to report Q4 earnings as stock crawls back from 10-month lows
CrowdStrike (CRWD) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday, March 3, after the market close. The cloud-native cybersecurity company has been dragged through the mud over the past several months, and the recent Software as a Service selloff in the market pushed its losses from the November highs nearly 40%, erasing billions in market capitalization.
The company operates on a subscription-based revenue model, with about 95% of its sales coming from subscriptions to its Falcon platform. Last quarter, annual recurring revenue from subscriptions rose 23% from the year prior, reaching $4.92 billion. The company achieved a 73% year-over-year increase in net new annual recurring revenue, totaling $265 million in the third quarter.
The accelerated growth in new subscribers wasn’t enough to ward off selling in December though. The stock saw an initial move higher but subsequently fell toward the end of the month, with a nearly 8% loss. Now, only two days into March, CRWD is up about 3.5% and on track for its first monthly gain since October. Of course, the earnings report will likely be the decider for how the rest of the month goes.
Meanwhile, U.S. markets continue to trade sideways, holding the trend from the last few months. The war in the Middle East isn’t having an outsized impact on equities, although it’s a different story in energy markets. The outlook in the U.S. continues to focus on the economy. Overall, it leaves CrowdStrike with a neutral backdrop concerning market sentiment.
What do traders expect?
According to TradingView, analysts expect CrowdStrike to report earnings per share (EPS) of $1.10 on $1.3 billion in revenue. That would compare to an EPS of $1.03 on $1.06 billion a year ago. Last quarter, EPS came in at $0.96 on $1.23 billion in revenue.
Analyst ratings are generally upbeat on the stock, with an average one-year price outlook of $520.87, representing 35% upside from here. There are no strong sell or sell ratings on the stock, according to TradingView.
Trading CrowdStrike earnings
CrowdStrike traded with an implied volatility rank (IVR) of 59.6 on Monday, March 2. That means volatility is elevated compared to the past twelve months. The +/- 29.94 point expected move translates to a 7.8% move up or down based on Monday’s stock price of 384.82. The range of the move is outlined in the daily price chart below.
Given that the stock is trading at levels dating back to April 2025, it’s a bit enticing to want to bottom fish here. Prices bottomed just above the 340 level in February, which is just 14 points below the expected move to the downside at 354.88. If the earnings report is impressive, or even decent, then there’s a chance that prices don’t crater lower.
A hypothetical trade to express this view would be selling a put spread in the March 20 expiration, with the short put at 350 and the long put at 345. This trade gives a probability of profit (POP) of 72% and a max profit of $120 versus a max loss of $380.
Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.
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