Delta (DAL) Q3 Earnings This Week: What You Need to Know
Delta (DAL) Q3 Earnings This Week: What You Need to Know
By:Gus Downing
Delta Air Lines (DAL) reports their Q3 FY2025 earnings this Thursday, October 9 at market open.
Analyst consensus estimates call for earnings per share (EPS) of $1.56 and $15 billion in revenue.
Unit revenue, demand mix, costs and margins, customer loyalty, and forward guidance are among the most important factors for DAL.
Where DAL Stands Heading Into Earnings
DAL has been stagnant on the year, rallying aggressively out of their Liberation Day lows but currently trading down 3-4% year-to-date. The one thing that has not been stagnant for the company this year is earnings, where DAL has yet to miss consensus estimates for EPS or revenue in any of their three calls (including their Q4 FY2024 call in January).
They are set to report earnings this Thursday, October 9, at market open, with consensus estimates for EPS and revenue set at $1.56 and $15 billion, respectively. This revenue estimate mirrors last quarter’s $15.5 billion, while EPS estimates are down slightly, from $2.06 per share in Q2 to $1.56 per share this quarter.
Key Metrics and Management Signals
Aside from the obvious core metrics, investors will have their eyes and ears open for a plethora of other updates from the company. One such topic is unit revenue and pricing; Delta’s management upgraded the lower end of their Q3 revenue growth to 2-4% on September 11. Investors are curious as to whether this improvement will hold into Q4.
Demand mix is another metric of interest. Ongoing strength in premium and corporate demand compared to softer retail demand contributed to DAL’s September selloff; any further information regarding demand mix and corporate verticals has the propensity to move the stock.
Another factor in this vein is Delta’s costs and margins. Updates on non-fuel unit cost trajectory will be big, along with the company’s adherence to the 9-11% operating margin guardrails discussed in their Q2 report. Investors should also be wary of Delta’s sensitivity to jet fuel cracks and any contribution or headwind from Monroe Energy.
Lastly, forward guidance will obviously be a major factor. In their Q2 report, Delta outlined their FY2025 EPS expectations at $5.25-$6.25; if that guidance is reiterated or increased, the stock could move up, and if it is tightened or decreased, the stock could move down. Framing of Q4 capacity and yields also falls into this category and could move share price.
The Road Ahead for DAL
Beyond just the metrics being reported in this Q3 report, DAL investors should also be mindful of capacity discipline across the industry, domestic yield recovery pace, macroeconomic and tariff sensitivity on corporate and international demand, and loyalty economics durability for the company. These broader issues will likely not be pointedly discussed in this earnings call, but could be major factors for DAL into the end of 2025 and beyond.
Gus Downing is host of the tastylive Network show Risk and Reward. @GainsByGus
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