Freeport-McMoRan Earnings: How Will the Miner Perform After a Volatile Quarter for Copper Prices?
Freeport-McMoRan Earnings: How Will the Miner Perform After a Volatile Quarter for Copper Prices?
- Freeport-McMoRan earnings are due out on Thursday, October 23.
- Miner faced significant copper volatility in the reporting period.
- Options traders see an expected move of +/- 1.45 points after earnings.
Freeport-McMoRan earnings come after volatile quarter in copper prices
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is scheduled to report earnings on Thursday, October 23, before the market open.
One of the largest mining companies based in the United States, Freeport’s earnings will give markets insight into the state of U.S. miners at a time when volatility in the commodities market is expanding.
Freeport is known as a copper miner, but it also produces gold as well. About 80% of revenue comes from copper, while about 10% comes from gold. The company also produces some revenue from molybdenum.
Copper prices experienced significant volatility through the third-quarter reporting period, as U.S tariffs on copper impacted prices. However, those tariffs focus on semi-finished copper products and derivative products. Copper ores, concentrates, cathodes and other input material are exempt. Those exemptions largely remove any significant impact on Freeport’s operations. Freeport also has a large U.S. footprint, further removing it from the tariff threat.
One drag to this quarter’s numbers will come from the incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia. The mud rush event caused several fatalities and interrupted operations. Freeport said that the impact on third-quarter sales would be about 4% lower for copper and about 6% lower for gold compared to the July estimates. Disruptions are expected to persist into 2026.
What do investors expect from Freeport-McMoRan?
According to TradingView, analysts expect to see earnings per share (EPS) come in at $0.42 on $6.71 billion in revenue. That would compare to an EPS of $0.38 on $6.79 billion in revenue from a year ago. Freeport posted an EPS of $0.54 on $7.58 billion in revenue last quarter.
Over the prior four quarters, Freeport has posted upside EPS surprises in all quarters, while it missed revenue expectations in only one quarter.
Copper prices (/HG) fell 4.45% during the reporting period from July to September. Gold prices (/GC) rose 17.10% over the same period. Still, a portion of the period saw substantially higher copper prices from earlier in the year, especially in July, which should help sales.
Trading FCX earnings
Freeport traded with an implied volatility rank (IVR) of 27.2, signaling lower volatility in the stock compared to the prior twelve months. Options traders see an expected move of +/- 1.45 points, which equates to 3.55% of Wednesday’s 40.88 stock price.
Technically, FCX is in a vulnerable state after it put in a big drop in late September. Prices are trading below the 9- and 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater
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