guy detailing car
Image generated with Midjourney

Will Gold and Silver Shine Again?

By:Christopher Vecchio - CFA

Gold prices are down 3% month-to-date

  • As August winds down to a close, precious metals are trying to claw back their losses.
  • Gold prices are attempting to return to a multi-month sideways consolidation.
  • Silver prices have rebounded off the rising trendline from the September 2022 and March 2023 swing lows.

Year-to-date price percent change chart for /GC, /SI
Year-to-date price percent change chart for /GC, /SI

Higher U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar have been a toxic mix for gold and silver prices in recent years, and August is not proving any different. And yet, something feels different about gold and silver prices right now.

While the U.S. Treasury 10-year yield hit a 16-year high this week and the U.S. dollar (via the DXY Index) hit a two-month high, gold and silver prices have traded to their lowest level since mid-March–but not the March lows, which is a meaningful distinction. All of this comes against the backdrop of multi-year highs in U.S. real yields across the curve.

Why does all this matter? Because these are close to the worst possible circumstances, in terms of cross-asset relationships, for precious metals (the only scenario worse would be a financial meltdown, whereby traders would sell everything not nailed to the floor to raise cash levels). Despite their losses, gold and silver prices aren’t down by nearly as much as one might expect—personally, new yearly lows should be in play from my perspective. But they’re not, and that speaks to a certain degree of resiliency that can’t be ignored.

/GC gold price technical analysis: daily chart (August 2022 to August 2023)

/GC gold price technical analysis: daily chart (August 2022 to August 2023)

Gold price’s vicious downtrend in August may finally be abating. /GCV3 has closed below its daily 5-EMA (one week moving average) every session since August 1, but today’s price action is shaping up to break that streak. Coupled with a return above the June 29 low at 1919.60 in /GCV3, there would be viable technical evidence of a bottom having formed. Until then, however, the momentum profile remains pointedly bearish, plain and simple.

/SI silver price technical analysis: daily chart (August 2022 to August 2023)

/SI silver price technical analysis: daily chart (August 2022 to August 2023)

Silver prices may have failed in fulfilling their bullish falling wedge reversal earlier this month, but price action in recent days has been nothing short of a relief for bulls. The breakdown below the rising trendline from September 2022 and March 2023 has been reversed, and in the process, the bearish momentum profile has been neutralized.

Now back above its daily 5-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope for the first time since August 1, daily MACD has issued a bullish crossover (albeit below its signal line) and slow stochastics have jumped out of oversold territory. While the series of lower highs and lower lows since May remains, we may now be on the verge of a more significant swing higher towards 24.500 in the coming weeks.

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx 

For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro.

Trade with a better broker, open a tastytrade account today. tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. are separate but affiliated companies.

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.

Related Posts

tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. tastylive is not in the business of transacting securities trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client’s situation or investment objectives. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.  Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors.  Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read the applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange-Traded Options Risk Disclosure found on

tastytrade, Inc. ("tastytrade”) is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, NFA, and SIPC. tastytrade was previously known as tastyworks, Inc. (“tastyworks”). tastytrade offers self-directed brokerage accounts to its customers. tastytrade does not give financial or trading advice, nor does it make investment recommendations. You alone are responsible for making your investment and trading decisions and for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of tastytrade’s systems, services or products. tastytrade is a wholly-owned subsidiary of tastylive, Inc.

tastytrade has entered into a Marketing Agreement with tastylive (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade. tastytrade and Marketing Agent are separate entities with their own products and services. tastylive is the parent company of tastytrade.

tastycrypto is provided solely by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. tasty Software Solutions, LLC is a separate but affiliate company of tastylive, Inc. Neither tastylive nor any of its affiliates are responsible for the products or services provided by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. Cryptocurrency trading is not suitable for all investors due to the number of risks involved. The value of any cryptocurrency, including digital assets pegged to fiat currency, commodities, or any other asset, may go to zero.

© copyright 2013 - 2024 tastylive, Inc. All Rights Reserved.  Applicable portions of the Terms of Use on apply.  Reproduction, adaptation, distribution, public display, exhibition for profit, or storage in any electronic storage media in whole or in part is prohibited under penalty of law, provided that you may download tastylive’s podcasts as necessary to view for personal use. tastylive was previously known as tastytrade, Inc. tastylive is a trademark/servicemark owned by tastylive, Inc.