Intel (INTC) Earnings Preview: AI PCs, Data Center, and Foundry Outlook
Intel (INTC) Earnings Preview: AI PCs, Data Center, and Foundry Outlook
By:Gus Downing
Intel is set to report their Q4 FY2025 earnings on Thursday after the close
Analyst consensus estimates call for an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.93 on revenue of $15.4 billion
Q3’s guidance called for $12.8-$13.8 billion in revenue; a match with consensus would put INTC ahead of schedule
Watchlist for the CallAI PCs: Adoption, Pricing, Pipeline
As is true with almost every tech company in 2026, AI will be an integral part of Intel’s report. PC shipments were strong in the second half of 2025, and Q3’s report showed units were up 4.1% year-over-year (YoY), with refreshed tailwinds into 2026. Management’s commentary on AI PC uptake and original equipment manufacturer (OEM) inventory could move shares and set the tone for the rest of the year.
Gaudi 3 Momentum and Hyperscaler Demand
Gaudi 3 is Intel’s AI accelerator, used for large-scale training and inference in generative AI models, and Intel was able to broaden its availability in 2025, particularly through their partnership with Dell’s AI Factory. Investors will be listening intently for any further details on bookings, ship-ins/ship-outs, and total cost of ownership (TCO). Any commentary on the roadmap for Gaudi in 2026 would also be important. Last year, industry trackers drew attention to trimmed Gaudi 3 shipment targets; management is expected to give an update on demand to address those concerns.
Margin Cadence Across Segments
Another segment that showed a return to growth in the second half of 2025 was Intel’s Data Center and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI) business, which was up 5% quarter-over-quarter from Q2 to Q3, albeit only bringing it back to unchanged YoY. Margins were constantly improving throughout 2025, and if that margin cadence holds, it would likely mean good things for Intel. Any commentary on whether cloud and enterprise orders are accelerating also falls into this category, and could move shares.
Foundry Momentum and Customer Wins
Intel’s self-proclaimed “biggest process innovation” is 18 Angstrom (18A) backside power delivery technology. Any updates on this call about 18A yield, ramps, and advanced packaging capabilities would carry some weight. Recent analyst notes have highlighted progress and the possibility of Intel climbing the foundry ranks; and named brands or wafer-start milestones would be big.
Margin Drivers and Cost Discipline
Future innovations are obviously not the only thing that matter; Intel’s current financial situation will also be a major key. Throughout 2025, management placed a great deal of emphasis on cost discipline while funding foundry and AI buildouts; commentary on 2026 operational expenditure and free cash flow goals, along with gross margin drivers, would help investors set expectations and could move the stock. Gross capital expenditure for 2025 is projected at around $14 billion; actual numbers there, as well as any number issued for 2026, will matter.
Building the 2026 Bridge
Lastly, any other guidance issued for 2026 will come into play. Management’s direction on AI PC seasonality, datacenter backlog, Gaudi pull-through, and revenue contributions from Intel Foundry Services (IFS) all fit this mold. Reaffirming or improving on the growth bridge vs. Q4 guidance would be a positive, and vice versa.
Gus Downing is host of the tastylive Network show Risk and Reward. @GainsByGus
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