Markets Care About Fed Rate Cuts, Not Venezuela: Macro Week Ahead
Markets Care About Fed Rate Cuts, Not Venezuela: Macro Week Ahead
By:Ilya Spivak
Stock markets looked past the US capture of Venezuela’s President Maduro to focus on Fed rate cut speculation.
- A surprise US raid to extradite Venezuela’s Maduro had little impact on Wall Street
- Crude oil prices, stocks, bonds, and the US dollar oscillated in familiar trading ranges
- The US jobs report and other top-tier data shaping Fed rate cut bets is now in focus
Stock markets seemed to be unbothered after shocking weekend headlines revealing that the United States conducted an operation in Venezuela to capture and extradite the country’s president, Nicolas Maduro. The benchmark S&P 500 index of US stocks rose 0.63% on the first day back from the New Year holiday. The tech-tilted Nasdaq 100 rose 0.76%.
Crude oil prices fell at the weekly trading open despite the headlines from Venezuela. Traders were seemingly unmoved by what the US action might mean for disrupting supply from the South American country, figuring the flows to be too modest for a meaningful impact on global supply trends.
Stocks, bonds, and the US dollar shrug off shock Venezuela headlines
The benchmark WTI crude oil contract then recovered, erasing intraday losses to finish the day near the top of a two week-range containing price action through the late-December holiday period. Far from a rethink of the Venezuela story, that rebound seemed to line up with resetting late-2025 moves across the major markets.
Tellingly, the rise in US stocks mostly amounted to erasing losses sustained on December 31, and little else. An outsized share of energy names – where the Venezuela raid triggered a rally – flattered the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000. Nevertheless, broader sentiment was little moved.
Similar moves played out in the bond market, where rates inched down as Treasuries across the yield curve rebounded from pre-holiday losses. Meanwhile, the US dollar swung lower to the bottom of its two-week trading range while bitcoin revisited the upper end of a trading band containing prices for a month.
US jobs data takes top billing with Fed rate cut speculation back in focus
All this may speak to pre-positioning ahead of key US economic data lining up to shape the markets’ most consistently impactful narrative of recent months: the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Traders and central bank officials agree on 50 basis points (bps) in rate cuts by the end of 2027, but markets want all of that easing to occur this year.
December’s jobs data might take center stage. It is seen showing a rise 55,000 in nonfarm payrolls, while the unemployment rate falls to 4.5%. Separate reports from the University of Michigan (UofM) and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) are set to reveal weak US consumer confidence and slowing service sector activity growth.
On balance, traders are likely to be disappointed if the incoming figures do little to nudge Fed officials out of wait-and-see mode and toward faster rate cuts. Stocks may face selling pressure, while the dollar might find its way higher. Gold prices might backtrack too, although their uptrend appears to be somewhat resistant to Fed-related shocks.
Ilya Spivak, tastylive head of global macro, has over 15 years of experience in trading strategy, and he specializes in identifying thematic moves in currencies, commodities, interest rates and equities. He hosts Macro Money and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @Ilyaspivak
For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive.com or @tastyliveshow on YouTube
Trade with a better broker, open a tastytrade account today. tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. are separate but affiliated companies.
Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.
tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. tastylive is not in the business of transacting securities trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client’s situation or investment objectives. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read the applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange-Traded Options Risk Disclosure found on tastytrade.com/disclosures.
tastytrade, Inc. ("tastytrade”) is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, NFA, and SIPC. tastytrade was previously known as tastyworks, Inc. (“tastyworks”). tastytrade offers self-directed brokerage accounts to its customers. tastytrade does not give financial or trading advice, nor does it make investment recommendations. You alone are responsible for making your investment and trading decisions and for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of tastytrade’s systems, services or products. tastytrade is a wholly-owned subsidiary of tastylive, Inc.
tastytrade has entered into a Marketing Agreement with tastylive (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade. tastytrade and Marketing Agent are separate entities with their own products and services. tastylive is the parent company of tastytrade.
tastyfx, LLC (“tastyfx”) is a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) registered Retail Foreign Exchange Dealer (RFED) and Introducing Broker (IB) and Forex Dealer Member (FDM) of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) (NFA ID 0509630). Leveraged trading in foreign currency or off-exchange products on margin carries significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. We advise you to carefully consider whether trading is appropriate for you based on your personal circumstances as you may lose more than you invest.
tastycrypto is provided solely by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. tasty Software Solutions, LLC is a separate but affiliate company of tastylive, Inc. Neither tastylive nor any of its affiliates are responsible for the products or services provided by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. Cryptocurrency trading is not suitable for all investors due to the number of risks involved. The value of any cryptocurrency, including digital assets pegged to fiat currency, commodities, or any other asset, may go to zero.
© copyright 2013 - 2026 tastylive, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Applicable portions of the Terms of Use on tastylive.com apply. Reproduction, adaptation, distribution, public display, exhibition for profit, or storage in any electronic storage media in whole or in part is prohibited under penalty of law, provided that you may download tastylive’s podcasts as necessary to view for personal use. tastylive was previously known as tastytrade, Inc. tastylive is a trademark/servicemark owned by tastylive, Inc.