Nasdaq 100 Powers Higher as Apple Steals the Spotlight from SMCI

Also, 10-year T-note, gold, natural gas and euro futures

1. Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): +0.4%  
2. 10-year T-note futures (/ZN): -0.15% 
3. Gold futures (/GC): -0.4% 
4. Natural gas futures (/NG): +1.43% 
5. Euro futures (/6E): +0.4% 

A solid start for stocks has both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 looking higher this morning. Mixed earnings reports after hours yesterday and ahead of the bell today have done little to spook investors, even as more consumer staples companies issue warnings over the trajectory of consumption in lower- and middle-class income earners. The big news of the day is that Apple (AAPL) announced that it would invest $100 billion into its US manufacturing efforts in order to avoid Trump’s tariffs. Bonds are steady ahead of a 10-year note auction later today, although the US dollar is on its back foot. 

Nasdaq futures (/NQU5) rose 0.25% this morning despite some weakness in semiconductor stocks. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell 0.56% in pre-market trading. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) was down over 5% after disappointing data center results. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) plunged about 17% after trimming its sales outlook.  

Yesterday’s weak purchasing managers' index (PMI) services data for the United States kept rate cut bets alive for September without going so far as to inject worry over the economic outlook. Snap (SNAP) fell almost 20% ahead of the bell after the company reported weak results on yesterday. McDonald’s (MCD) rose 4% as sales rebounded in the second quarter. Arista Networks (ANET) surged over 12% on positive results. Uber (UBER) beat on revenue, sending shares 1% higher. Shopify (SHOP) gained 14% after providing strong guidance and results. DraftKings (DKNG) is scheduled to report earnings after the bell. 

The 10-year T-note futures (/ZNU5) were down 0.14% in early trading to extend losses from yesterday’s session. Still, prices remain at the highest levels since early July, helped by last week’s jobs report that boosted Federal Reserve interest rate cut bets. Bond traders are keyed into the upcoming 10-year notes auction scheduled for today. Yesterday’s sale of three-year notes saw 3.669% vs. its pre-auction 3.662% yield. 

Gold prices (/GCZ5) fell 0.5% this morning, trimming gains for the week after increased bets for the Fed to cut interest rates boosted the metal. A slight risk-on tone in equity markets is working against precious metals this morning despite the dollar being down. Prices stalled at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the April to May move, and prices have gyrated near the mid-point of that range for the last few months. 

Natural gas prices (/NGU5) rose 1.5% in early trading, with improved weather forecasting and increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) feeds to export facilities helping to drive some strength in the commodity. Prices are still slightly lower on the week and trading near the lowest levels since April but holding above the 3 handle. Higher-than-average temperatures are expected across the Northeast through the second half of August, which should support prices over the short term. 

Euro futures (/6EU5) rose 0.44% this morning to put the currency in positive territory for the week. Uncertainty for Europe has cleared after the European Union struck a trade deal with the United States, and last week’s jobs report increased bets for a September rate cut from the Fed. Today’s move puts prices back above the 21-day exponential moving average.  

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx

Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater

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