Nasdaq 100 Sets Sights on New Highs as Nvidia Hits $4 Trillion Market Cap
Nasdaq 100 Sets Sights on New Highs as Nvidia Hits $4 Trillion Market Cap
Also, 10-year T-note, copper, natural gas and Japanese yen futures
- Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): +0.7%
- 10-year T-note futures (/ZN): +0.2%
- Copper futures (/HG): -2.14%
- Natural gas futures (/NG): -3.95%
- Japanese Yen futures (/6J): +0.14%
A dip in US Treasury yields has been a green light for equity markets to continue their rally. The Nasdaq 100 is quickly scaling fresh highs, buttressed by an increase in the Nvidia (NVDA) stock price that made it the first public company with a market cap north of $4 trillion. Metals markets are calming after the Trump administration announced yesterday’s it would impose shocking 50% tariff on copper (although thin liquidity in copper futures makes for difficult trading). Now, attention turns to the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes set to be released today at 2 p.m. EDT and the torrent of comments from President Donald Trump regarding Jerome “Too Late” Powell.
| Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
| /ESU5 | +0.58% |
| /NQU5 | +0.7% |
| /RTYU5 | +0.51% |
| /YMU5 | +0.53% |
Technology stocks led the market higher this morning as traders shrugged off the latest news on tariffs. Nvidia rose over 2% in early trading, bringing its market cap above $4 trillion and making it the first publicly traded company to achieve that mark. Verona Pharma (VRNA) rose over 20% after Merck (MRK) purchased the company in a $10 billion deal. Starbucks (SBUX) rose 1% after a report from CNBC revealed that Starbucks China drew bids for a possible stake sale. AES (AES) rose 16% on news that the renewable power supplier is thinking about selling the company.
| Strategy: (51DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 21250 p Short 21500 p Short 24500 c Long 24750 c | 61% | +1275 | -3725 |
| Short Strangle | Short 21500 p Short 24500 c | 68% | +6025 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 21250 p Short 21500 p | 83% | +605 | -4395 |
| Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
| /ZTU5 | +0.04% |
| /ZFU5 | +0.09% |
| /ZNU5 | +0.2% |
| /ZBU5 | +0.3% |
| /UBU5 | +0.38% |
Treasuries rose across the curve this morning. Last week’s jobs report pressured bulls in the bond market who were expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as soon as July. 10-year T-note futures (/ZNU5) traded at fresh lows for the year overnight before trimming losses to trade slightly positive as US trading kicked off. The Treasury will auction 10-year notes today and 30-year bonds tomorrow. Bond traders will closely watch the auctions and will pay particular attention to foreign demand.
| Strategy (44DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 108 p Short 109 p Short 113.5 c Long 114.5 c | 69% | +187.50 | -812.50 |
| Short Strangle | Short 109 p Short 113.5 c | 73% | +375 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 108 p Short 109 p | 88% | +109.38 | -890.63 |
| Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
| /GCQ5 | -0.37% |
| /SIU5 | -0.36% |
| /HGU5 | -2.14% |
Copper prices (/HGU5) fell 3% after a big surge that came yesterday after Trump said he would impose a 50% tariff on imports. Global inventories were already low before the announcement, and major copper consumer China hasn’t shown much appetite this year to replenish inventories in the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). Traders front-loaded deliveries into the U.S. early this year, which pushed inventories at COMEX to recent highs. Still, that bloated level in the US simply represents a rebalancing from China and the London Metals Exchange (LME), leaving the world with a limited supply of the metal.
| Strategy (48DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 4.75 p Short 4.85 p Short 6.2 c Long 6.3 c | 63% | +700 | -1800 |
| Short Strangle | Short 4.85 p Short 6.2 c | 71% | +3650 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 4.75 p Short 4.85 p | 83% | +350 | -2150 |
| Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
| /CLQ5 | -0.8% |
| /HOQ5 | -1.72% |
| /NGQ5 | -3.95% |
| /RBQ5 | -0.39% |
A surprising forecast from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is sending natural gas prices (/NGQ5) spiraling lower. The July short-term energy outlook forecast projected natural gas inventories will reach 3,910 billion cubic feet (BCF) at the end of October, a 5% increase over the June projection. The US is awash in natural gas, and the prospects of diminished trade resulting from tariffs increases the risk of oversupply in the short-term.
| Strategy (48DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 2.5 p Short 2.6 p Short 3.8 c Long 3.9 c | 65% | +310 | -690 |
| Short Strangle | Short 2.6 p Short 3.8 c | 73% | +1380 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 2.5 p Short 2.6 p | 82% | +140 | -860 |
| Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
| /6AU5 | +0.11% |
| /6BU5 | +0.07% |
| /6CU5 | -0.06% |
| /6EU5 | -0.11% |
| /6JU5 | +0.14% |
The US dollar’s rebound is losing a bit of steam today as the decline in US Treasury yields is undercutting some of the greenback’s appeal. Volatility remains low across several of the majors, particularly the Japanese yen (/6JU5) which is nursing an IVR below 10. Per the most recent Commodity Futures Trading Commission report on commitments of traders, yen net-long positioning has a Z-score of +2.66 over a rolling 20-year period; for the euro, the Z-score sits at +1.34. The short US dollar trade remains crowded by historical standards.
| Strategy (58DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 0.0065 p Short 0.0066 p Short 0.0071 c Long 0.0072 c | 62% | +325 | -925 |
| Short Strangle | Short 0.0066 p Short 0.0071 c | 68% | +812.50 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 0.0065 p Short 0.0066 p | 87% | +125 | -1125 |
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater
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