Nasdaq 100 Holding Gains After Record High Close

Also 10-year T-note, copper, crude oil and British pound futures

1. Nasdaq 100 e-mini futures (/NQ): +0.02%
2. 10-year T-note futures (/ZN): -0.03%
3. Copper futures (/HG): +0.37%
4. Crude oil futures (/CL): +1.81%
5. British pound futures (/6B): +0.15%

The S&P 500 (/ESH4) and Nasdaq 100 (/NQH4) closed at record highs yesterday, and traders don’t seem ready to stop bidding up markets as the week comes to a close.

Four consecutive monthly gains from November through February is a unique accomplishment, one that typically portends stronger performance for the rest of the year.

Elsewhere, a bump high in crude oil prices (/CLJ4) may be impacting the bond market, where long-end yields are high amid a further increase in market-derived inflation expectations.

Nasdaq remains steady

Nasdaq futures (/NQH4) are treading water to start the month of March after February closed out with a record closing high and a fourth monthly gain that finished with a bright spot after inflation data bolstered bets for a Federal Reserve rate cut.

This morning, however, traders are hesitant to buy after New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) plummeted following the disclosure of risks related to its loans and internal controls. The troubles at the regional lender are now cascading across the market and may impact market sentiment into next week.

10-year Treasuries move sideways

Ten-year T-note futures (/ZNH4) are nearly unchanged on Friday morning despite yesterday's encouraging data on inflation.

Still, some traders were expecting more upside following the at-expectations personal consumption expenditures (PCE) print, but a hot economy is keeping some questions around over if the Federal Reserve will be able to cut in June.

We don’t have any Treasury auctions on the schedule for today, but speeches from five Fed officials could help catalyze price action.

Copper could have a losing week

Copper futures (/HGH4) are on track to record a loss for the week, ending a two-week win streak. Official data out of China on the manufacturing sector for February showed continued contraction, while a smaller private survey from Caixin highlighted small improvements, although the latter tracks smaller-sized firms.

The metal has seen some volatile trading over the last few months, but it's also shown technical weakness, with a series of lower lows and lower highs, which started in late-December 2023.

Crude oil could win this week

Crude oil futures (/CLH4) are on track to close out a week of busy data with some gains. Next week will be crucial for oil markets with a decision from OPEC on extending production cuts expected sometime soon.

Markets largely expect OPEC to extend the cuts into at least the second quarter, but the more bullish scenario would be to roll the cuts out through the end of the year. Meanwhile, weak data out of China has tempered demand expectations for now.

Currencies in flux

Foreign exchange (FX) markets have been in a state of flux in recent days, with eyes on the Japanese Yen (/6JH4) following comments from varying officials regarding potential tighter monetary policy.

One currency that has been flying under the radar this week is the British pound (/6BH4), which just posted back-to-back down days for the first time since the start of February.

Directionless, rangebound conditions that began in late-November 2023 persist.

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx

Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater

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