Nasdaq 100 Leads the Way as Stocks Recover From Friday’s Jobs Report sell-Off
Nasdaq 100 Leads the Way as Stocks Recover From Friday’s Jobs Report sell-Off
Also, 10-year T-note, silver, crude oil and euro futures
- Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): +1.64%
- 10-year T-note futures (/ZN): -0.03%
- Silver futures (/SI): +1.19%
- Crude oil futures (/CL): -2.38%
- Euro futures (/6E): +0.44%
A volatility crush on the other side of the weekend has paved the path for stocks to bounce back following Friday’s post-jobs report sell-off. The Nasdaq 100 is leading the way higher, holding support in the uptrend in place since mid-May (as is the S&P 500). Bonds are slightly weaker, though a light calendar in the coming days offers little rhyme or reason for a meaningful shift in the odds for a Federal Reserver interest rate cut for September. Elsewhere, the resumption of US dollar weakness after last week’s cavalcade of economic figures has proved supportive for precious metals.
| Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
| /ESU5 | +1.19% |
| /NQU5 | +1.64% |
| /RTYU5 | +1.08% |
| /YMU5 | +0.92% |
Nasdaq 100 futures (/NQU5) rose 1.58% today as markets retraced losses from Friday when the jobs report shook market sentiment. Seasonally, August isn’t a great month for equity markets, but bulls seem to be maintaining control over the market despite the recent hit to the labor market. Spotify (SPOT) rose over 7% after the company announced it would raise prices. ON Semiconductor (ON) fell 8% after the company posted weak guidance for the quarter ahead. Tyson Foods (TSN) gained 2.6% after beating results. Wayfair (W) rose 6% on strong second quarter results.
| Strategy: (45DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 22800 p Short 22900 p Short 23700 c Long 23750 c | 61% | +1015 | 985 |
| Short Strangle | Short 22900 p Short 23700 c | 50% | +15300 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 22800 p Short 22900 p | 60% | +585 | -1415 |
| Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
| /ZTU5 | -0.01% |
| /ZFU5 | -0.01% |
| /ZNU5 | -0.03% |
| /ZBU5 | -0.14% |
| /UBU5 | -0.18% |
Treasuries were little changed this morning after big gains on Friday following the jobs report that boosted Fed rate cut bets. 10-year T-note futures (/ZNU5) were up 0.06% in early trading. This week’s bond trading will be defined by a series of potentially high-impact auctions, including a three-year note auction tomorrow, a 10-year note auction on Wednesday and a 30-year bond auction on Thursday.
| Strategy (53DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 111 p Short 111.5 p Short 113 c | 30% | +328.13 | -171.88 |
| Short Strangle | Short 111.5 p Short 113 c | 55% | +1343.75 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 111 p Short 111.5 p | 72% | +171.88 | -328.13 |
| Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
| /GCZ5 | +0.9% |
| /SIU5 | +1.19% |
| /HGU5 | +0.26% |
Silver futures (/SIU5) rebounded today following last week’s 3.74% decline, which marked the third weekly drop for the metal. Prices are holding above the 37 handle amid a risk-on start to the trading week. Long and short speculators cut their positions as of last Tuesday, according to Friday’s Commitments of Traders report, although the market remains net long the metal. Tomorrow’s services PMI data could affect precious metals prices as traders focus on rate cut bets for September.
| Strategy (52DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 37 p Short 37.25 p Short 39 c Long 39.25 c | 22% | +960 | -290 |
| Short Strangle | Short 37.25 p Short 39 c | 57% | +10440 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 37 p Short 37.25 p | 59% | +570 | -680 |
| Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
| /CLU5 | -2.38% |
| /HOU5 | -0.72% |
| /NGU5 | -4.15% |
| /RBU5 | -1.35% |
Crude oil futures (/CLU5) fell over 2% to start the week to put prices back into the range that defined most of July trading. OPEC+ agreed to an additional output increase for September, which will release an an added 547,000 barrels per day onto the market. Meanwhile, tariffs could reduce demand in the months ahead, putting additional pressure on the commodity. Inventory figures this week will be closely monitored, starting with the American Petroleum Institute’s numbers due tomorrow.
| Strategy (44DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 63 p Short 63.5 p Short 67.5 c Long 68 c | 20% | +380 | -120 |
| Short Strangle | Short 63.5 p Short 67.5 c | 53% | +4710 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 63 p Short 63.5 p | 56% | +220 | -280 |
| Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
| /6AU5 | +0.62% |
| /6BU5 | +0.65% |
| /6CU5 | +0.39% |
| /6EU5 | +0.44% |
| /6JU5 | +0.49% |
Euro futures (/6EU5) pushed higher to start the week, extending Friday’s move that was sparked by US jobs data. Traders remained very long on the euro, according to Friday’s COT data. The sell-off during July now seems over, but whether the euro regains levels traded in late June and early July remains uncertain and depends on how trade negotiations pan out between the United States and Europe.
| Strategy (60DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 1.15 p Short 1.155 p Short 1.175 c Long 1.18 c | 26% | +437.50 | -187.50 |
| Short Strangle | Short 1.155 p Short 1.175 c | 55% | +2625 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 1.15 p Short 1.155 p | 72% | +212.50 | -400 |
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
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