Nasdaq 100 Melts Higher as VIX Drops Below 16, Gold Finds New Highs
Nasdaq 100 Melts Higher as VIX Drops Below 16, Gold Finds New Highs
Also 30-year T-Bond, Gold, Natural Gas, and Euro Futures
- Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): +0.75%
- 30-year T-Bond futures (/ZB): -0.54%
- Gold futures (/GC): +1.06%
- Natural gas futures (/NG): -1.73%
- Euro futures (/6E): +0.27%
A week of a quieter earnings calendar and economics calendar (not to say anything about the news) is ending on a high note, with both of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 melting higher in thin trading conditions. Volatility is poised to finish the week at the lows, with the VIX dropping by nearly 6 points. News that Trump advisor Stephen Miran would be appointed to fill-out the remaining vacated Kugler term on the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors has emboldened the ‘reflation trade,’ to a certain extent: stronger stocks and gold, weaker bonds.
| Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
| /ESU5 | +0.64% |
| /NQU5 | +0.75% |
| /RTYU5 | +0.56% |
| /YMU5 | +0.56% |
Nasdaq 100 futures (/NQU5) rose 0.60% in early Friday trading, putting prices on track for the best weekly gain since late June. Second quarter earnings have reassured investors that companies can navigate the tumultuous trade situation. The Trade Desk (TTD) fell nearly 40% following a series of downgrades from analysts. Viavi Solutions (VIAV) rose 10% on positive results. Under Armour (UA) fell 16% after missing estimates. Wendy's (WEN) rose 1% despite the company lowering its guidance.
| Strategy: (41DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 23300 p Short 23400 p Short 24000 c Long 24100 c | 18% | +1505 | -495 |
| Short Strangle | Short 23400 p Short 24000 c | 48% | +14480 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 23300 p Short 23400 p | 60% | +605 | -1395 |
| Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
| /ZTU5 | -0.05% |
| /ZFU5 | -0.14% |
| /ZNU5 | -0.2% |
| /ZBU5 | -0.54% |
| /UBU5 | -0.68% |
Bonds continued lower Friday after the week offered a series of weak auction results for notes and bonds. 30-year T-Bond futures (/ZBU5) fell 0.46% in early trading, putting prices on track for a weekly loss. Yesterday, President Trump announced that he picked Stephen Miran to fill Adriana Kugler’s spot on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. The term will last until January. Meanwhile, markets continue to price in a high chance for a rate cut in September, with Fed Funds futures showing a 90% chance for a 25 basis point rate cut. /ZBU5 is trading at its 9-day exponential moving average, a potential area of support.
| Strategy (49DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 112 p Short 113 p Short 116 c Long 117 c | 33% | +625 | -375 |
| Short Strangle | Short 113 p Short 116 c | 54% | +2203.13 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 112 p Short 113 p | 69% | +296.88 | -703.13 |
| Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
| /GCZ5 | +1.06% |
| /SIU5 | +0.75% |
| /HGU5 | +1.31% |
Gold futures (/GCZ5) surged overnight after the United States imposed a tariff on the imports of 1-kg and 100-ounce bullion bars. Recent data from China also showed that its central bank continued to buy gold. Traders who see the Federal Reserve that is about to cut rates as another tailwind for the metal. Although overnight strength was trimmed, prices remain about 1% higher in the New York trading session.
| Strategy (48DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 3405 p Short 3410 p Short 3520 c Long 3525 c | 19% | +370 | -130 |
| Short Strangle | Short 3410 p Short 3520 c | 53% | +12200 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 3405 p Short 3410 p | 60% | +220 | -280 |
| Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
| /CLU5 | -1.19% |
| /HOU5 | -0.03% |
| /NGU5 | -1.73% |
| /RBU5 | -0.97% |
Natural gas prices (/NGU5) fell Friday despite positive data from yesterday’s storage report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which showed a 7 billion cubic feet (Bcf) injection for the week ending August 1. Inventories remain near the higher end of the 5-year average, while weather models offer little support for the demand side through the second half of August.
| Strategy (48DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 2.95 p Short 3 p Short 3.35 c Long 3.4 c | 24% | +390 | -110 |
| Short Strangle | Short 3 p Short 3.35 c | 56% | +3700 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 2.95 p Short 3 p | 55% | +220 | -280 |
| Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
| /6AU5 | +0.47% |
| /6BU5 | +0.26% |
| /6CU5 | +0.1% |
| /6EU5 | +0.27% |
| /6JU5 | -0.15% |
Despite some broader dollar strength, Euro futures (/6EU5) moved higher overnight. However, prices are facing resistance at 1.17, a level that has provided resistance on an intraday basis this week. The dollar is making some gains after a report showed that President Trump favors Chrisopher Waller for the Fed Chair spot. Next week’s U.S. inflation data will likely provide the dollar its next big directional cue as the Euro holds its strength for the week.
| Strategy (56DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 1.16 p Short 1.165 p Short 1.185 c Long 1.19 c | 27% | +450 | -175 |
| Short Strangle | Short 1.165 p Short 1.185 c | 55% | +2500 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 1.16 p Short 1.165 p | 69% | +237.50 | -387.50 |
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater
For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro.
Trade with a better broker, open a tastytrade account today. tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. are separate but affiliated companies.
Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.
tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. tastylive is not in the business of transacting securities trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client’s situation or investment objectives. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read the applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange-Traded Options Risk Disclosure found on tastytrade.com/disclosures.
tastytrade, Inc. ("tastytrade”) is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, NFA, and SIPC. tastytrade was previously known as tastyworks, Inc. (“tastyworks”). tastytrade offers self-directed brokerage accounts to its customers. tastytrade does not give financial or trading advice, nor does it make investment recommendations. You alone are responsible for making your investment and trading decisions and for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of tastytrade’s systems, services or products. tastytrade is a wholly-owned subsidiary of tastylive, Inc.
tastytrade has entered into a Marketing Agreement with tastylive (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade. tastytrade and Marketing Agent are separate entities with their own products and services. tastylive is the parent company of tastytrade.
tastyfx, LLC (“tastyfx”) is a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) registered Retail Foreign Exchange Dealer (RFED) and Introducing Broker (IB) and Forex Dealer Member (FDM) of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) (NFA ID 0509630). Leveraged trading in foreign currency or off-exchange products on margin carries significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. We advise you to carefully consider whether trading is appropriate for you based on your personal circumstances as you may lose more than you invest.
tastycrypto is provided solely by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. tasty Software Solutions, LLC is a separate but affiliate company of tastylive, Inc. Neither tastylive nor any of its affiliates are responsible for the products or services provided by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. Cryptocurrency trading is not suitable for all investors due to the number of risks involved. The value of any cryptocurrency, including digital assets pegged to fiat currency, commodities, or any other asset, may go to zero.
© copyright 2013 - 2025 tastylive, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Applicable portions of the Terms of Use on tastylive.com apply. Reproduction, adaptation, distribution, public display, exhibition for profit, or storage in any electronic storage media in whole or in part is prohibited under penalty of law, provided that you may download tastylive’s podcasts as necessary to view for personal use. tastylive was previously known as tastytrade, Inc. tastylive is a trademark/servicemark owned by tastylive, Inc.