Nasdaq 100 Rebounds After Google Court Ruling; Gold Rally Continues
Nasdaq 100 Rebounds After Google Court Ruling; Gold Rally Continues
Also 30-year T-Bond, Gold, Crude Oil, and Euro Futures
- Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): +0.53%
- 30-year T-Bond futures (/ZB): +0.25%
- Gold futures (/GC): +0.66%
- Crude Oil futures (/CL): -1.65%
- Euro futures (/6E): +0.08%
The turn through the middle of the week is offering a bit more stability than past days, with U.S. equity markets holding within a +/-1% range. The Nasdaq 100 is leading the rebound in the wake of the Google court ruling, but risk appetite is improved across the board, with crypto currencies posting strong performances as well. Precious metals are continuing their strong performance, with gold topping 3600 and silver jumping above 42.
| Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
| /ESU5 | +0.35% |
| /NQU5 | +0.53% |
| /RTYU5 | +0.2% |
| /YMU5 | -0.02% |
Nasdaq futures (/NQU5) bounced back on Wednesday after yesterday’s losses that kicked off September trading. Alphabet (GOOGL) rose over 8% after the company avoided losing its Chrome browser in a federal ruling. Zscaler (ZS) fell 4% despite offering positive guidance during its earnings report. Campbell’s Co (CPB) rose 3.75% on a positive earnings report. Macy’s Inc (M) put in a big 18% gain in early trading after the retailer posted numbers that beat forecasts and raised its guidance.
| Strategy: (44DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 21750 p Short 22000 p Short 25000 c Long 25250 c | 62% | +1125 | -3875 |
| Short Strangle | Short 22000 p Short 25000 c | 68% | +5295 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 21750 p Short 22000 p | 85% | +565 | -4435 |
| Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
| /ZTZ5 | +0.02% |
| /ZFZ5 | +0.04% |
| /ZNZ5 | +0.08% |
| /ZBZ5 | +0.25% |
| /UBZ5 | +0.46% |
Treasuries were lower in overnight trading but a dip in job openings caused some dip buying in early U.S. trading. 30-year T-Bond futures (/ZBU5) rose 0.74% in early trading, pushing the underlying yield lower for the week. Fed funds futures continued to price in a large chance for a rate cut at this month’s Federal Reserve meeting. Yields along the short-end of the curve have come down on those cut expectations, but lingering threats of inflation have kept yields on the longer-end of the curve higher.
| Strategy (51DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 108 p Short 110 p Short 118 c Long 120 c | 62% | +531.25 | -1468.75 |
| Short Strangle | Short 110 p Short 118 c | 68% | +1125 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 108 p Short 110 p | 83% | +281.25 | -1718.75 |
| Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
| /GCZ5 | +0.66% |
| /SIZ5 | +0.39% |
| /HGZ5 | -0.38% |
Both gold (/GCZ5) and silver (/SIZ5) have surged at the start of September, ignoring seasonal weakness that has been notable over the past two decades (to wit: the second worst month of the year for gold over the past 20-years, averaging a loss of -0.35% while producing a losing month 60% of the time). Volatility for both metals has risen during the rise over the past week, one of contemporaneous signals underscoring the strength of the move; call skew is notable, for what it’s worth.
| Strategy (55DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 3350 p Short 3400 p Short 3850 c Long 3900 c | 64% | +1440 | -3560 |
| Short Strangle | Short 3400 p Short 3850 c | 71% | +5180 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 3350 p Short 3400 p | 83% | +720 | -4280 |
| Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
| /CLV5 | -1.88% |
| /HOV5 | +0.1% |
| /NGV5 | +2.98% |
| /RBV5 | -0.68% |
Crude oil futures (/CLV5) dropped 2.5% this morning ahead of the OPEC+ meeting this weekend when the cartel will decide on further production cut rollbacks. Inventories are expected to grow in the fourth quarter and more oil from OPEC countries could accelerate the move toward a surplus in the market. Traders will digest U.S. inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute later today. Meanwhile, the physical market has weakened, with the prompt spread trading at about 44 cents of backwardation compared with over a dollar of backwardation just a month ago.
| Strategy (45DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 56 p Short 58 p Short 71 c Long 73 c | 61% | +510 | -1490 |
| Short Strangle | Short 58 p Short 71 c | 68% | +1580 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 56 p Short 58 p | 78% | +300 | -1700 |
| Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
| /6AU5 | +0.4% |
| /6BU5 | +0.37% |
| /6CU5 | -0.06% |
| /6EU5 | +0.08% |
| /6JU5 | -0.12% |
A drop in U.S. Treasury yields is making the U.S. Dollar’s Wednesday a bit more difficult. For all the attention on long-end bond yields across the globe, relief in U.K. Gilts is making the biggest difference; the British Pound (/6BU5) is the top performer. Our attention remains on the Euro (/6EU5), which has seen its own rise in yields this year that outpaces its British counterparts; fiscal and monetary policy instability is not just a U.S. issue! To this end, IVRs across FX futures remain elevated; Canadian Dollar (/6CU5) IVR is north of 110.
| Strategy (65DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 1.12 p Short 1.13 p Short 1.2 c Long 1.21 c | 64% | +350 | -900 |
| Short Strangle | Short 1.13 p Short 1.2 c | 70% | +1062.50 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 1.12 p Short 1.13 p | 87% | +125 | -1125 |
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater
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