Nasdaq 100 Shakes Off August CPI, Surprise Jump in Jobless Claims
Nasdaq 100 Shakes Off August CPI, Surprise Jump in Jobless Claims
Also 30-year T-Bond, Gold, Crude Oil, and Euro Futures
- Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures(/NQ): +0.35%
- 30-year T-Bond futures (/ZB): +0.19%
- Gold futures (/GC): -0.29%
- Crude Oil futures (/CL): -1.77%
- Euro futures (/6E): +0.3%
| Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
| /ESU5 | +0.59% |
| /NQU5 | +0.35% |
| /RTYU5 | +1% |
| /YMU5 | +1% |
A slightly hotter-than-expected inflation number wasn’t enough to keep bulls in check Thursday morning, with Nasdaq 100 futures (/NQU5) rising 0.5% through the first hour of morning trading. Now, with inflation data out of the way, investors are focused on next week’s Federal Reserve meeting when we will likely see an interest rate cut. Oracle(ORCL) cooled off, dropping 4.5%, after yesterday’s huge move higher. Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) rose 60% after the company named Kaz Nejatian from Shopify (SHOP) as its next chief executive. Klarna (KLAR) fell 1.75% after rising about 14% in its first day of trading yesterday. Micron Technology (MU) rose over 8% after receiving an upgrade from Citi (C).
| Strategy: (50DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 23800 p Short 23900 p Short 24600 c Long 24700 c | 18% | +1510 | -490 |
| Short Strangle | Short 23900 p Short 24600 c | 49% | +17300 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 23800 p Short 23900 p | 60% | +600 | -1400 |
| Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
| /ZTZ5 | +0.06% |
| /ZFZ5 | +0.11% |
| /ZNZ5 | +0.15% |
| /ZBZ5 | +0.19% |
| /UBZ5 | +0.26% |
Treasuries rose across the curve Thursday morning after the CPI report crossed the wires. 30-year T-Bond futures (/ZBZ5) rose 0.35%, hitting the highest levels since April. Yesterday’s 10-year auction showed solid results for foreign demand, teeing up today’s 30-year auction scheduled for this afternoon. The increase in weekly jobless claims data also helped to lock in rate cut expectations for the Fed’s meeting next week, putting additional upward pressure on bonds.
| Strategy (43DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 116 p Short 117 p Short 119 c Long 120 c | 29% | +687.50 | -312.50 |
| Short Strangle | Short 117 p Short 119 c | 55% | +2359.38 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 116 p Short 117 p | 65% | +375 | -625 |
| Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
| /GCZ5 | -0.29% |
| /SIZ5 | +0.61% |
| /HGZ5 | +0.39% |
Gold prices (/GCZ5) pulled back Thursday, dropping 0.29%, despite lower Treasury yields and a softer dollar. Gold has rallied into fresh all-time highs over the past several weeks, leaving the metal in a vulnerable state to profit taking. Still, prices are up over 4% since the start of the month, with much of those gains being driven by the view that rates will come down shortly. The lack of price reaction tells us that much of the move has already been priced in for gold. That could lead to more consolidation over the short term, as other assets move to reflect the current environment.
| Strategy (47DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 3620 p Short 3625 p Short 3730 c Long 3735 c | 21% | +390 | -110 |
| Short Strangle | Short 3625 p Short 3730 c | 56% | +11020 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 3620 p Short 3625 p | 62% | +220 | -280 |
| Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
| /CLV5 | -1.77% |
| /HOV5 | -2.48% |
| /NGV5 | -0.23% |
| /RBV5 | -1.85% |
Crude oil prices (/CLV5) fell almost 2% Thursday, reversing gains from the prior two sessions. A report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) showed a well supplied market in 2026. The report comes after a bearish weekly inventory report for the U.S. that crossed the wires yesterday, which showed a nearly 4 million barrel build in crude oil stocks. OPEC released its own report showing a better demand outlook compared to the IEA, but traders seem focused on the threat of additional supply coming into the market amid a fragile global economy.
| Strategy (67DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 60 p Short 60.5 p Short 64.5 c Long 65 c | 19% | +380 | -120 |
| Short Strangle | Short 60.5 p Short 64.5 c | 51% | +4660 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 60 p Short 60.5 p | 56% | +210 | -290 |
| Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
| /6AU5 | +0.27% |
| /6BU5 | +0.14% |
| /6CU5 | +0.08% |
| /6EU5 | +0.3% |
| /6JU5 | +0.04% |
Euro futures (/6EU5) were driven higher by broader dollar weakness following this morning’s data. However, the European Central Bank (ECB) left rates unchanged Thursday and Christine Lagarde failed to give any hints about a policy direction moving forward, saying that policy is being made on a “meeting by meeting” basis. Lagarde did say that Europe’s trade uncertainty has diminished. The European Union negotiated a 15% cap on U.S. tariffs, which were much lower than levels previously threatened by the United States.
| Strategy (57DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 1.165 p Short 1.17 p Short 1.19 c | 29% | +425 | -200 |
| Short Strangle | Short 1.17 p Short 1.19 c | 55% | +2137.50 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 1.165 p Short 1.17 p | 71% | +237.50 | -387.50 |
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime,Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater
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