Nasdaq 100 Slides as Traders Rotate in Value After Home Depot Earnings
Nasdaq 100 Slides as Traders Rotate in Value After Home Depot Earnings
Also 30-year T-Bond, Gold, Natural Gas, and Japanese Yen Futures
- Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): -1.08%
- 30-year T-Bond futures (/ZB): +0.38%
- Silver futures (/SI): -1.48%
- Natural Gas futures (/NG): -5.43%
- Japanese Yen futures (/6J): +0.07%
Traders are derisking in the run-up to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole later this week, with the top performers of 2025 all pulling back: tech stocks, precious metals, and crypto are all weaker on the session; even the U.S. Dollar is finding some breathing room. The U.S. consumer is in focus over the coming days with earnings with earnings from companies like Lowe’s (LOW), Target (TGT), and Walmart (WMT).
| Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
| /ESU5 | -0.32% |
| /NQU5 | -1.08% |
| /RTYU5 | -0.48% |
| /YMU5 | +0.16% |
The Nasdaq 100 (/NQU5) shed around -1% on Tuesday morning as rotation away from tech intensified, with Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), and Tesla (TSLA) leading the pullback. Markets are treading water before Jackson Hole, where Fed Chair Powell’s tone could recalibrate expectations for cuts in 2025. Earnings from Home Depot (HD) have helped the Dow Jones (/YMU5) hold above water thus far today.
| Strategy: (46DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 22000 p Short 22250 p Short 24750 c Long 25000 c | 60% | +1390 | -3610 |
| Short Strangle | Short 22250 p Short 24750 c | 67% | +5570 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 22000 p Short 22250 p | 86% | +515 | -4485 |
| Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
| /ZTU5 | +0.04% |
| /ZFU5 | +0.11% |
| /ZNU5 | +0.18% |
| /ZBU5 | +0.38% |
| /UBU5 | +0.48% |
The 30-year yield held near 4.94%, underscoring persistent inflation stickiness that limits conviction for aggressive Fed easing. Term premium remains elevated, and with supply overhang from Treasury issuance, the belly of the curve looks vulnerable should Powell strike a hawkish chord this week.
| Strategy (38DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 109 p Short 111 p Short 119 c Long 121 c | 70% | +375 | -1625 |
| Short Strangle | Short 111 p Short 119 c | 73% | +718.75 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 109 p Short 111 p | 82% | +281.25 | -1718.75 |
| Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
| /GCZ5 | -0.33% |
| /SIU5 | -1.48% |
| /HGU5 | -0.91% |
Gold futures (/GCZ5) continue to sag, dipping near 3355 as traders pullback bets amid a potential contraction in geopolitical tensions thanks to perceived progress on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. While metals have outpaced equities, bonds, and even Bitcoin in 2025, the current volatility regime (IVRs below 15 in both gold and silver) harkens to a difficult trading environment on the long side.
| Strategy (70DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 3175 p Short 3200 p Short 3550 c Long 3575 c | 59% | +850 | -1650 |
| Short Strangle | Short 3200 p Short 3550 c | 69% | +4910 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 3175 p Short 3200 p | 82% | +450 | -2050 |
| Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
| /CLV5 | -0.91% |
| /HOU5 | +0.57% |
| /NGU5 | -5.43% |
| /RBU5 | -0.25% |
Natural gas prices (/NGU5) dropped by more than -5% in early trade as cooler weather and a build in inventories has created a short-term supply glut. Speculative longs continue to unwind in the futures market after hitting a recent high in July; the move lower in recent weeks appears to be driven by position clearing.
| Strategy (37DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 2.25 p Short 2.35 p Short 3.25 c Long 3.35 c | 61% | +340 | -660 |
| Short Strangle | Short 2.35 p Short 3.25 c | 69% | +1240 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 2.25 p Short 2.35 p | 81% | +160 | -840 |
| Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
| /6AU5 | -0.49% |
| /6BU5 | -0.07% |
| /6CU5 | -0.34% |
| /6EU5 | +0.01% |
| /6JU5 | +0.07% |
The U.S. Dollar ($DXY) firmed modestly, bouncing off 98 as geopolitical uncertainty from Ukraine supported haven flows. Still, the greenback remains range-bound, with traders wary that a dovish Powell in Jackson Hole could rekindle the dollar’s broader downtrend into year-end. That said, short USD remains the most crowded trade according to the Bank of America Fund Manager Survey; if Powell falls short of promising a September rate cut, the greenback may be able to find legs for a tactical bounce.
| Strategy (45DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 0.0066 p Short 0.0067 p Short 0.0071 c Long 0.0072 c | 64% | +312.50 | -937.50 |
| Short Strangle | Short 0.0067 p Short 0.0071 c | 68% | +562.50 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 0.0066 p Short 0.0067 p | 73% | +200 | -1050 |
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
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