Nasdaq 100 Gives Up Historic Gains Following Meta an Microsoft Earnings Reports
Nasdaq 100 Gives Up Historic Gains Following Meta an Microsoft Earnings Reports
Also, 30-year T-bond, copper, crude oil and Japanese yen futures
- Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): +0.35%
- 30-year T-bond futures (/ZB): +0.38%
- Copper futures (/HG): -21.8%
- Crude oil futures (/CL): -1.81%
- Japanese yen futures (/6J): -0.79%
Following earnings releases from Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT), US equity markets added the most market cap in the overnight trading hours ever. To put it into context, the market cap gained by META and MSFT ($550 billion) was greater than the entire market capitalization of either Costco (COST) or Netflix (NFLX). But that’s where the jubilation ends because by the start of the cash equity open in New York, nearly all of the gains were lost. Data this morning showed US consumer spending fell in the first half of 2025, providing a discouraging lens for the more consumer-centric earnings scheduled for later today from Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN). And that’s not say anything of President Donald Trump’s Aug. 1 deadline for new tariff rates for most countries on the planet.
| Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
| /ESU5 | +0.35% |
| /NQU5 | +0.35% |
| /RTYU5 | -0.16% |
| /YMU5 | -0.44% |
Volatility gapped open lower but closed the gap, while stocks gapped open higher and likewise closed theirs and fell below their highs before yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting. That’s not exactly the most encouraging price action, although one can’t dismiss end-of-month flows and rebalancing following the most astounding duo of earnings in stock market history; IVRs for the S&P 500 (/ESU5) and Nasdaq 100 (/NQU5) are still in the low teens. AAPL and AMZN report after the bell.
| Strategy: (49DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 21750 p Short 2200 p Short 25250 p Long 25500 p | 67% | +1120 | -13380 |
| Short Strangle | Short 2200 p Short 25250 p | 72% | +4225 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 21750 p Short 2200 p | 85% | +510 | -4485 |
| Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
| /ZTU5 | +0.03% |
| /ZFU5 | +0.12% |
| /ZNU5 | +0.23% |
| /ZBU5 | +0.58% |
| /UBU5 | +0.72% |
Trade deals and extensions (Mexico) are enough to keep traders away from the existential cliff in the Treasury market, at least for the time being. The Federal Reserve’s insistence that it can’t cut rates just yet, thanks in part to the impact of tariffs on inflation, may be helping the long-end of the curve from spiraling out of control. Both 10s (/ZNU5) and 30s (/ZBU5) are holding near the midpoint of their trading range from April 2 (Liberation Day) onwards.
| Strategy (57DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 108 p Short 110 p Short 118 c Long 120 c | 57% | +562.50 | -1437.50 |
| Short Strangle | Short 110 p Short 118 c | 65% | +1296.88 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 108 p Short 110 p | 83% | +296.88 | -1703.13 |
| Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
| /GCZ5 | -0.1% |
| /SIU5 | -2.79% |
| /HGU5 | -21.8% |
Metals getting hit hard is probably a positive development in the grand scheme of things, alongside the strength in bonds and the US dollar. That said, all attention is on copper (/HGU5), which has been decimated following the clarification of the original July 8 50% tariff announcement: it does not apply to the raw material itself. Will this help bring down inflation? Studies show that a +/- 10% change in copper prices leads to a +/- 0.3% to 0.5% change in headline CPI 24 months later; the imposition of the broad copper tariff didn’t move the needle for near-term inflation on July 8, and the narrowing of the tariff shouldn’t be materially impactful the other way.
| Strategy (56DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 3.8 p Short 3.95 p Short 4.85 c Long 5 c | 70% | +637.50 | -3112.50 |
| Short Strangle | Short 3.95 p Short 4.85 c | 73% | +1562.50 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 3.8 p Short 3.95 p | 87% | +275 | -3475 |
| Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
| /CLU5 | -1.81% |
| /HOU5 | -0.78% |
| /NGU5 | +0.79% |
| /RBU5 | -1.7% |
A rapid build in energy inventories in recent weeks is proving too difficult a hurdle for energy products to scale today. Crude oil prices (/CLU5) have broken their bull fever that defined the first three days of the week, although it should be noted that the catalyst — the Trump-imposed deadline for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire – is next week so dips may prove shallow, thanks to inflated geopolitical risk premia .
| Strategy (48DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 59 p Short 61 p Short 78 c Long 80 c | 63% | +510 | -1990 |
| Short Strangle | Short 61 p Short 78 c | 70% | +1820 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 59 p Short 61 p | 78% | +290 | -1710 |
| Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
| /6AU5 | +0.07% |
| /6BU5 | -0.06% |
| /6CU5 | -0.17% |
| /6EU5 | +0.12% |
| /6JU5 | -0.79% |
The US dollar ($DXY) continues to exhibit signs of bottoming, with the scale of gains this week indicating short covering taking place. The most crowded short USD position comes via the Japanese yen (/6JU5), which has been fertile ground for the unwind in recent sessions. With today’s action, the yen has erased all its gains seen since mid-February.
| Strategy (64DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 0.0063 p Short 0.00635 p Short 0.00695 c Long 0.007 c | 66% | +137.50 | -487.50 |
| Short Strangle | Short 0.00635 p Short 0.00695 c | 72% | +625 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 0.0063 p Short 0.00635 p | 93% | +37.50 | -587.50 |
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
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