Nasdaq Futures Jump 0.9% Ahead of Nvidia Earnings

Also, 10-year T-note, gold, crude oil and euro futures

1. Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): +0.9%
2. 10-year T-note futures (/ZN): -0.04%
3. Gold futures (/GC): +0.22%
4. Crude oil futures (/CL): -0.55%
5. Euro futures (/6E): -0.06%
   

The most important event of the week beckons: Nvidia (NVDA) earnings after the closing bell today. After four consecutive days of weakness, stocks are showing a more optimistic tone today, with each of the four equity index futures trading higher. Bonds are taking a breather after a strong run since Friday, while metals are bouncing back after yesterday’s liquidation-like environment. In the world of FX, the U.S. dollar remains on its back foot as U.S. Treasury yields remain pinned near their yearly lows.

U.S. equity futures rebounded on this morning, with the Nasdaq (/NQH5) leading the charge as investors look ahead to this afternoon’s earnings report from Nvidia. The chipmaker's earnings could be the next catalyst for the market, which also leaves sentiment vulnerable to a further contraction should its numbers disappoint. C3.ai (AI) is also set to report earnings after the close, along with Salesforce (CRM).

Bond prices moderated today following a big drop in yields on yesterday after consumer confidence data injected stagflation fears into the market. The 10-year T-note futures (/ZNM5) fell 0.11% in early trading, which left prices hovering near the highest levels traded since mid-December. Friday’s inflation report is the next economic report that could have a big impact on the Federal Reserve interest rate cut bets. The Treasury will auction two-year floating rate notes (FRNs) today as well as seven-year notes.

Gold prices are little changed, up 0.09% after losses from yesterday’s trading session moderated in overnight trading. While yesterday’s selloff was notable, the technical structure in gold prices remains healthy as prices hover above the 2,900 mark. The chance for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia and the passage of the GOP’s budget plan through the House removed some uncertainty from the market.

Crude oil prices (/CLJ5) remain under pressure following losses from yesterday’s session, as the prospect of a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia advances, which is removing geopolitical uncertainty from the market. Meanwhile, the threat of a broader trade war by the United States is dimming the global economic outlook, something that could lead to lower oil demand. Traders await inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) due later today. However, the recent decline in prices came alongside an increase in the prompt spread in crude oil futures, signaling that the recent move could be more from profit-taking instead of a structural change in the oil market’s current supply mechanisms.

A softer U.S. economic outlook has softened the dollar’s outlook, opening some upside for the euro (/6EH5) over the past several weeks. Euro prices are now testing the 2025 swing high established back in January at 1.05575. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut rates again next week despite still-high inflation. That could help to bolster Europe’s economy, which has been hamstrung by high borrowing costs. Friday’s U.S. inflation report could provide the next catalyst for euro direction, given the lack of economic data from the Eurozone for the rest of the week.

Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. #@fxwestwater

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
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