Nasdaq Marks New Highs Ahead of FOMC Week as Technology Stocks Rally

Also 10-year T-Note, Silver, Crude Oil, and Euro Futures

1. Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures(/NQ): +0.27%
2. 10-year T-Note futures (/ZN): -0.30%
3. Silver futures (/SI): +1.41%
4. Crude Oil futures (/CL): +1.54%
5. Euro futures (/6E): -0.13%

Technology stocks led markets higher Friday morning, with the Nasdaq leading equity indexes. Tesla (TSLA) rose more than 5% to trade at the highest levels since early February. Equity options expire today, being the third Friday of the month, an event that can sometimes induce some volatility. That isn’t what we are seeing, however, with the VIX trading lower this morning. Consumer sentiment fell in September, according to the University of Michigan, with consumers still wary over tariffs. Still, that wasn’t enough to stop equity traders from pushing markets higher. Next week’s FOMC meeting poses the largest risk to markets, but traders appear optimistic over the Fed’s path forward. 

Nasdaq futures (/NQU5) climbed through the first hour of trading, rising about 0.27%, after traders assessed a heavy week of economic data. Prices were on track to rise 1.62% for the week, which would be the best performance since early August. Since the start of the month, prices are up over 2%, rebuking a seasonal trend that generally drags equity prices lower in September. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) rose 4% in early trading after the company announced that it started delivering shipments of Nvidia’s Blackwell Ultra Systems. Adobe (ADBE) gave up pre-market gains to trade negative in the cash session, dropping over 1% despite a positive earnings report. Furniture maker RH (RH) fell 1.5% after missing expectations. 

Bonds pulled back Friday after investors digested this week’s results on inflation. 10-year T-Note futures (/ZNZ5) fell 0.34% in early trading, putting prices on track for a weekly loss. The long end of the curve held onto its weekly gain, with 30-year T-Bond futures (/ZBZ5) on track for a gain of about 0.6% for the week. The inflation expectation numbers from the University of Michigan showed that year-ahead inflation expectations remained the same at 4.8%, matching the August number. 

Silver futures (/SIZ5) rose 1.43% to break into fresh 14-year highs Friday morning. The metal rose sharply in August before consolidating into a bull flag pattern through the first half of September. With a break of resistance, prices are resuming their preceding uptrend, signaling a new bout of bullish sentiment for the metal. Gold prices (/GCZ5) were also higher but lagged behind silver, rising just 0.42% this morning. Next week’s FOMC is likely to deliver a rate cut for markets, which should bode well for metal prices, but the path ahead for the Fed needs more clarity. For now, it looks like precious metals traders are expecting rates to continue to fall. 

Crude oil prices (/CLV5) rose nearly 2% Friday morning after Ukraine attacked a Russian oil export terminal, which halted operations overnight. Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia have stalled after a series of meetings earlier this year that failed to bear any fruit. The gains came after oil prices fell on Thursday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a bearish report that showed supply is expected to increase next year. Russian supply is expected to drop in the coming months, especially after India’s largest port operator banned sanctioned tankers from entering its ports. 

Euro futures (/6EU5) moderated overnight following its post-CPI gains from yesterday when the dollar weakened against most of its peers on the expectation that the Fed is locked into a rate cut next week. French inflation rose 0.4% from the prior month, matching expectations. The European Central Bank (ECB) came across as neutral earlier this week, highlighting the potential risks of rates diverging between Europe and the United States. 

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime,Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx

Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater

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