Nasdaq Trims Early Gains as Stagflation Fears Persist
Nasdaq Trims Early Gains as Stagflation Fears Persist
Also, 10-year T-note, silver, crude oil and euro futures
- Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): +0.28%
- 10-year T-note futures (/ZN): -0.07%%
- Silver futures (/SI): +2.68%
- Crude oil futures (/CL): +0.16%
- Euro futures (/6E): +1.16%
Traders started the week with a risk-on mood, as Nasdaq futures (/NQH5) gained 0.28% in early trading to lead U.S. equity markets higher. European stocks moved higher to start the week, which set the tone for U.S. trading. The risk-on mood was boosted by the announcement of a strategic cryptocurrency reserve in the United States. Tesla (TSLA) also bounced after analysts said the stock could rebound up to 50% following its recent losses.
Strategy: (58DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 20750 p Short 20800 p Short 21700 c Long 21750 c | 20% | +780 | -220 |
Short Strangle | Short 20800 p Short 21700 c | 53% | +19265 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 20750 p Short 20800 p | 58% | +320 | -680 |
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Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
/ZTM5 | -0.05% |
/ZFM5 | -0.09% |
/ZNM5 | -0.07% |
/ZBM5 | +0.00% |
/UBM5 | +0.08% |
Bonds fell and yields rose across the curve to start the week following a strong shift higher in bond pricing last week as bets on a Federal Reserve cut in interest rates accelerated on declining economic growth sentiment. 10-year T-note futures (/ZNM5) fell 0.18% in early trading. Bond traders have Friday’s non-farm payrolls report in sharp focus amid an otherwise light economic calendar. President Trump will address Congress tomorrow, which could influence yields.
Strategy (53DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 109.5 p Short 110 p Short 112 c Long 112.5 c | 37% | +312.50 | -187.50 |
Short Strangle | Short 110 p Short 112 c | 62% | +1359.38 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 109.5 p Short 110 p | 77% | +171.88 | -328.13 |
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Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
/GCJ5 | +1.43% |
/SIK5 | +2.68% |
/HGK5 | +2.08% |
Silver futures (/SIK5) bounced this morning to bring prices back above the 32 level that was defended several times last week but ultimately surrendered below the level of support on Friday. A pullback in yields and the dollar is helping to open some upside for precious metals to start the week.
Strategy (52DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 31.5 p Short 31.75 p Short 33.25 c Long 33.5 c | 20% | +995 | -265 |
Short Strangle | Short 31.75 p Short 33.25 c | 54% | +10280 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 31.5 p Short 31.75 p | 58% | +580 | -670 |
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Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
/CLJ5 | +0.16% |
/HOJ5 | -0.60% |
/NGJ5 | +2.43% |
/RBJ5 | +0.27% |
Crude oil prices were slightly higher, up about 0.6%, to start the week as traders assess the fallout from last week’s meeting between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The tensions between the U.S. and Ukraine may prove to be a lasting divide between the two countries, which could lead to an accelerated timeline to remove Russian sanctions. Meanwhile, European leaders have rallied around Ukraine and vowed to step up support for Kyiv. The bid in oil prices also comes after a positive economic print out of China that showed some acceleration in the nation’s manufacturing sector.
Strategy (44DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 68 p Short 68.5 p Short 71.5 c Long 72 c | 19% | +390 | -110 |
Short Strangle | Short 68.5 p Short 71.5 c | 53% | +4010 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 68 p Short 68.5 p | 56% | +210 | -290 |
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Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
/6AH5 | +0.76% |
/6BH5 | +0.97% |
/6CH5 | +0.38% |
/6EH5 | +1.16% |
/6JH5 | -0.04% |
Euro futures (/6EH5) jumped more than 1% this morning as traders weighed the prospect for a jump in fiscal spending as European countries look to increase their support for Ukraine following last week’s meeting in Washington that highlighted a fracture in the U.S.-Ukraine relationship. The potential shift in fiscal policy in Europe would likely benefit the Euro via a boost to the economy from the additional spending. Meanwhile, a pullback in yields is offering a tailwind for non-U.S. currencies.
Strategy (32DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 1.04 p Short 1.045 p Short 1.06 c Long 1.065 c | 33% | +412.50 | -212.50 |
Short Strangle | Short 1.045 p Short 1.06 c | 58% | +1612.50 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 1.04 p Short 1.045 p | 73% | +175 | -450 |
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Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. #@fxwestwater
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
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