Nasdaq 100 Stretches to New Highs as Bessent Downplays Aug. 1 Tariff Deadline
Nasdaq 100 Stretches to New Highs as Bessent Downplays Aug. 1 Tariff Deadline
Also, 30-year T-bond, gold, natural gas and Japanese yen futures
- Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): +0.31%
- 30-year T-bond futures (/ZB): +0.83%
- Gold futures (/GC): +1.12%
- Natural gas futures (/NG): -5.5%
- Japanese yen futures (/6J): +0.73%
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent kickstarted the trading week by telling traders the Aug. 1 tariff deadline didn’t really matter, noting that “we’re not going to rush for the sake of doing deals.” Markets are responding accordingly, with stocks higher and long-end US Treasury yields lower. Weaker US yields are undercutting the US dollar, which in turn may be fueling the surge in precious metals today.
| Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
| /ESU5 | +0.12% |
| /NQU5 | +0.31% |
| /RTYU5 | +0.53% |
| /YMU5 | +0.19% |
US stocks moved higher to start the week, with Nasdaq 100 futures (/NQU5) adding about 0.42% in early trading. Earnings season has gotten off to a strong start, and we’re heading into a busy week of results. Stellantis NV (STLA) fell over 1% after the automaker said it expects a $2.7 billion hit from tariffs and restructuring costs. Dollar Tree (DLTR) rose after an upgrade from Barclays. Verizon (VZ) rose 2.3% after reporting a beat on earnings. Block (XYZ) rose over 7% ahead of its debut in the S&P 500 later this week.
| Strategy: (39DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 21750 p Short 22000 p Short 24750 c Long 25000 c | 64% | +1090 | -3910 |
| Short Strangle | Short 22000 p Short 24750 c | 69% | +4720 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 21750 p Short 22000 p | 84% | +605 | -4395 |
| Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
| /ZTU5 | +0.05% |
| /ZFU5 | +0.19% |
| /ZNU5 | +0.35% |
| /ZBU5 | +0.83% |
| /UBU5 | +1.09% |
Bonds advanced today to continue last week’s trend higher, as traders see the Aug. 1 tariff deadline moving closer. Rate cut bets for next week’s Federal Reserve meeting are essentially at zero, but markets see a successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell as being more dovish. This week’s corporate earnings schedule and a 20-year bond auction later this week will be in the spotlight for traders. 30-year T-bond futures (/ZBU5) were 0.83% higher early today.
| Strategy (67DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 106 p Short 108 p Short 120 c Long 122 c | 66% | +453.13 | -1546.88 |
| Short Strangle | Short 108 p Short 120 c | 72% | +1187.50 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 106 p Short 108 p | 85% | +281.25 | -1718.75 |
| Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
| /GCQ5 | +1.12% |
| /SIU5 | +1.34% |
| /HGU5 | +0.31% |
Lower yields and a softer dollar helped to lift gold prices (/GCQ5), adding 1.12% this morning. Today’s move puts the metal at its highest level since June 23 and above 3,400. The move higher comes despite more risk taking in the equity market. Traders may be moving some money into safe-haven assets given the recent gains in equities that have put prices near all-time highs.
| Strategy (36DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 3200 p Short 3225 p Short 3575 c Long 3600 c | 68% | +650 | -1850 |
| Short Strangle | Short 3225 p Short 3575 c | 75% | +3260 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 3200 p Short 3225 p | 86% | +230 | -2270 |
| Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
| /CLQ5 | -0.48% |
| /HOQ5 | +0.53% |
| /NGQ5 | -5.5% |
| /RBQ5 | -1.01% |
Natural gas futures (/NGQ5) fell nearly 6% this morning as weather models looking into August cooled off a bit from last week. Meanwhile, production in the United States reached a record high, according to Bloomberg data. A lack of heat across the Northeast is also keeping bulls at bay, with the demand-concentrated area doing little to cut down on supply.
| Strategy (36DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 2.7 p Short 2.8 p Short 3.9 c Long 4 c | 66% | +290 | -710 |
| Short Strangle | Short 2.8 p Short 3.9 c | 73% | +1220 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 2.7 p Short 2.8 p | 83% | +130 | -870 |
| Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
| /6AU5 | +0.15% |
| /6BU5 | +0.39% |
| /6CU5 | +0.14% |
| /6EU5 | +0.34% |
| /6JU5 | +0.73% |
The ruling Japanese coalition, LDP and Komeito, appear to have lost their grip on the upper house of parliament in their worst electoral showing since 2013. And yet the Japanese yen (/6JU5) is rallying today, thanks in part because the election results were not as bad for continuity in governance as many observers feared. Sprinkle in lower US Treasury yields, and it’s an ideal mix for a snapback rally by the yen to start the week.
| Strategy (46DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 0.00655 p Short 0.0066 p Short 0.00705 c Long 0.0071 c | 63% | +175 | -450 |
| Short Strangle | Short 0.0066 p Short 0.00705 c | 70% | +650 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 0.00655 p Short 0.0066 p | 85% | +87.50 | -537.50 |
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater
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