Nasdaq 100 Finds New Highs at End of Quarter as Canada Revives Trade Talks

Also, 10-year T-note, gold, natural gas and Japanese yen futures

1. Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): +0.54% 
2. 10-year T-note futures (/ZN): +0.08% 
3. Gold futures (/GC): +0.27% 
4. Natural gas futures (/NG): -6.47% 
5. Japanese yen futures (/6J): +0.22% 

The markets were dragged down Last week when the US and Canada cut off trade talks because of Canada’s digital services tax — but that’s now in the rearview mirror. Over the weekend, Canada announced it would rescind the tax to spur fresh talks between the Western hemisphere’s largest and third-largest economies. US equity markets are liking the news, with the end of quarter squeeze finishing as the first half of the year ends. Elsewhere, with trade talks moving forward and the July 9 deadline looking unimportant, bonds are firming up and the lower yields may be weighing on the US dollar. 

The ‘chase higher’ that has defined US equity markets since mid-May is continuing right down to the finish line for the second quarter. The Nasdaq 100 (/NQU5) is in the pole position once again, reaching a fresh all-time high in the futures market overnight. The S&P 500 (/ESU5) may be around the corner; IVRs for each of the major indexes reside below 13. News that the Senate dropped the provision regarding remittances and foreign investment — effectively a “revenge tax” that led to the exemption of the US from the G7 minimum tax deal — has proved to be a positive catalyst for equities as the Senate’s Vote-a-Rama on the One Big Beautiful Bill is starting. 

Signs of trade progress among major US trading partners is good news for the bond market because our trade deficits are ultimately capital account surpluses: Countries reinvest dollar-denominated proceeds from trade back into US Treasuries. As America’s seventh largest debt holder, having a positive trade relationship with Canada is important for the bond market. The start of July welcomes new auction activity: 3s (tomorrow), 10s (Wednesday) and 30s (Thursday) are all on the docket this week.

Metals are, on balance, weaker, although it’s not exactly an inspiring day one way or the other. Both gold (/GCQ5) and silver (/SIU5) are exhibiting signs of both volatility and technical momentum eroding in a manner that hasn’t been seen throughout 2025. Case and point: Gold didn’t put in two consecutive closes below its daily 50-SMA (simple moving average) from Jan. 8 to June 25. It has closed below its daily 50-SMA in three of the past four sessions (today would make it four of five), and that hasn’t happened since the last week of December 2024/first week of January 2025. 

Crude oil prices (/CLQ5) have stabilized in recent days, with the conclusion of this round of missiles among the U.S., Israel, and Iran having eradicated the geopolitical risk premia pumped into markets. While temperatures across the US are expected to be elevated over the coming weeks, forecasts have been revised marginally lower amid a backdrop of building natural gas inventories, which may be behind the sharp swing lower in natural gas prices (/NGQ5) at the start of the week. 

Lower US Treasury yields often translate to a weaker US dollar. That’s the name of the game on the last day of June, with traders dropping the greenback in favor of all currencies but for the British pound (/6BU5). Our attention remains on the Japanese yen (/6JU5), which retains one of the most crowded positions in the futures market: Speculative positioning retains a Z-score of +2.62 (June 2005 to present), suggesting a still-crowded long yen position after the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitment of Traders report update. 

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx

Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater

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