tastylive logo
uploaded image

Nasdaq 100 Pushes Higher as Trump Weighs Iran Strike; FOMC Later Today

By:Thomas Westwater

Also, 30-year T-bond, gold, crude oil,and Australian dollar futures

Nasdaq 100, 30-year T-bond, gold, crude oil, Australian dollar futures
Nasdaq 100, 30-year T-bond, gold, crude oil, Australian dollar futures

  1. Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): +0.14% 
  2. 30-year T-bond futures (/ZB): +0.38% 
  3. Gold futures (/GC): -0.01% 
  4. Crude oil futures (/CL): +0.37% 
  5. Australian dollar futures (/6A): +0.57% 

Day 6 of the Israel-Iran war has seen intense bombing around Tehran, while President Donald Trump grapples with the decision of whether to formally jump into the fray. Traders are likewise in wait-and-see mode for today’s Federal Reserve decision on interest rates, even if markets are pricing in a 99% chance of no change in rates. VIXpiration has likewise arrived, and with the Juneteenth federal holiday tomorrow (US markets will be closed), traders will have to decide whether they want to hold risk during the window when President Trump may decide to bomb Iran. 

Symbol: Equities Daily Change 
/ESU5 +0.27% 
/NQU5 +0.14% 
/RTYU5 +0.4% 
/YMU5 +0.27% 

Nasdaq 100 futures (/NQU5) were slightly higher in early trading as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision approached. The determination comes ahead of a US federal holiday, with markets scheduled to be closed for Juneteenth. The conflict between Israel and Iran entered its sixth day and the US still hasn’t made a solid decision to join the war. Meanwhile, traders remain concerned about the economy amid tariffs and ongoing negotiations over President Trump’s tax and spending bill. Korn Ferry (KFY) jumped over 8% this morning after the company beat earnings estimates. Consumer discretionary stocks were in the lead this morning, and the health care sector was the laggard.  

Strategy: (43DTE, ATM) Strikes POP Max Profit Max Loss 
Iron Condor  

Long 20250 p 

Short 20500 p 

Short 23750 c 

Long 24000 c 

64% +960 -4040 
Short Strangle 

Short 20500 p 

Short 23750 c 

70% +5120 
Short Put Vertical 

Long 20250 p 

Short 20500 p 

82% +630 -4370 

Nasdaq 100, (/NQU5)
Nasdaq 100, (/NQU5)
Symbol: Bonds Daily Change 
/ZTU5 +0.03% 
/ZFU5 +0.09% 
/ZNU5 +0.17% 
/ZBU5 +0.38% 
/UBU5 +0.4% 

Bonds rose for a second day, with 30-year T-bond futures (/ZBU5) up 0.33% in early trading. The US debt is attracting some safe-haven flows, as tensions in the Middle East remain high. Today’s Fed decision, which comes with updated economic projections, could influence the path of bonds. The long end of the curve came under pressure earlier this year as interest rate traders cut expectations for Fed rate cuts. Investors’ attention will likely shift back to the tax and spending bill in Congress once the Fed meeting is over.  

Strategy (62DTE, ATM) Strikes POP Max Profit Max Loss 
Iron Condor  

Long 108 p 

Short 110 p 

Short 118 c 

Long 120 c 

62% +515.63 -1484.38 
Short Strangle 

Short 110 p 

Short 118 c 

68% +1078.13 
Short Put Vertical 

Long 108 p 

Short 110 p 

83% +250 -1750 

US treasury bond futures, (/ZBU5)
US treasury bond futures, (/ZBU5)
Symbol: Metals Daily Change 
/GCQ5 -0.01% 
/SIN5 -0.12% 
/HGN5 +0.24% 

Gold prices (GCQ5) were slightly lower this morning as stocks advanced ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision. Prices have stabilized as the US dollar moderates from a recent sell-off. Central banks have helped to prop up prices this year, but investors appear to be taking off some exposure as the Fed decision nears despite still-high tensions in the Middle East. The closely watched gold/silver ratio rebounded as silver losses (/SIN5) accelerated, but the ratio remains near the lowest levels traded since late March.  

Strategy (40DTE, ATM) Strikes POP Max Profit Max Loss 
Iron Condor  

Long 3175 p 

Short 3200 p 

Short 3600 c 

Long 3625 c 

65% +680 -1820 
Short Strangle 

Short 3200 p 

Short 3600 c 

72% +3940 
Short Put Vertical 

Long 3175 p 

Short 3200 p 

85% +310 -2190 

Gold futures, (/GCQ5)
Gold futures, (/GCQ5)
Symbol: Energy Daily Change 
/CLN5 +0.37% 
/HON5 +1.15% 
/NGN5 +2.93% 
/RBN5 +1.6% 

Crude oil prices (/CLN5) trimmed earlier gains as US trading kicked off, with the commodity falling to the 72 handle after yesterday’s gain of over 4%. Oil has rallied as fears over oil disruptions increase amid the Israel-Iran conflict, with some expecting Iran’s proxy groups would target shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday’s report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed crude stocks in the US fell by over 10 million barrels for the week ended June 13. The Energy Information Administration's report for inventories is in focus for today as well as the Fed meeting. President Trump said this morning Iran has reached out and is willing to negotiate. 

Strategy (58DTE, ATM) Strikes POP Max Profit Max Loss 
Iron Condor  

Long 56 p 

Short 58 p 

Short 90 c 

Long 92 c 

67% +400 -1600 
Short Strangle 

Short 58 p 

Short 90 c 

74% +2900 
Short Put Vertical 

Long 56 p 

Short 58 p 

83% +210 -1790 

Light sweet crude oil futures, (/CLQ5)
Light sweet crude oil futures, (/CLQ5)
Symbol: FX Daily Change 
/6AU5 +0.57% 
/6BU5 +0.1% 
/6CU5 -0.14% 
/6EU5 +0.11% 
/6JU5 +0.37% 

Australian dollar futures (/6AU5) rose over 0.5% this morning as market sentiment improved slightly. The increase in oil prices has helped prop up the commodity-sensitive currency, but lingering fears over the conflict in the Middle East may cap some upside for the currency, especially if the situation escalates. Economic indicators in Australia remained weak, with the Leading Economic Index posting a 0.1% decline for May.  

Strategy (51DTE, ATM) Strikes POP Max Profit Max Loss 
Iron Condor  

Long 0.625 p 

Short 0.63 p 

Short 0.675 c 

Long 0.68 c 

62% +140 -360 
Short Strangle 

Short 0.63 p 

Short 0.675 c 

69% +520 
Short Put Vertical 

Long 0.625 p 

Short 0.63 p 

84% +70 -430 

Australian dollar/US dollar, (/6AU5)
Australian dollar/US dollar, (/6AU5)

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx

Thomas Westwatera tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater

For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro.

Trade with a better brokeropen a tastytrade account today. tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. are separate but affiliated companies.


Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.

Related Posts

tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. tastylive is not in the business of transacting securities trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client’s situation or investment objectives. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.  Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors.  Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read the applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange-Traded Options Risk Disclosure found on tastytrade.com/disclosures.

tastytrade, Inc. ("tastytrade”) is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, NFA, and SIPC. tastytrade was previously known as tastyworks, Inc. (“tastyworks”). tastytrade offers self-directed brokerage accounts to its customers. tastytrade does not give financial or trading advice, nor does it make investment recommendations. You alone are responsible for making your investment and trading decisions and for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of tastytrade’s systems, services or products. tastytrade is a wholly-owned subsidiary of tastylive, Inc.

tastytrade has entered into a Marketing Agreement with tastylive (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade. tastytrade and Marketing Agent are separate entities with their own products and services. tastylive is the parent company of tastytrade.

tastycrypto is provided solely by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. tasty Software Solutions, LLC is a separate but affiliate company of tastylive, Inc. Neither tastylive nor any of its affiliates are responsible for the products or services provided by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. Cryptocurrency trading is not suitable for all investors due to the number of risks involved. The value of any cryptocurrency, including digital assets pegged to fiat currency, commodities, or any other asset, may go to zero.

© copyright 2013 - 2025 tastylive, Inc. All Rights Reserved.  Applicable portions of the Terms of Use on tastylive.com apply.  Reproduction, adaptation, distribution, public display, exhibition for profit, or storage in any electronic storage media in whole or in part is prohibited under penalty of law, provided that you may download tastylive’s podcasts as necessary to view for personal use. tastylive was previously known as tastytrade, Inc. tastylive is a trademark/servicemark owned by tastylive, Inc.