Netflix Earnings Preview: Will NFLX Calm Stock Market Volatility?
Netflix Earnings Preview: Will NFLX Calm Stock Market Volatility?
- Netflix is set to report earnings on Tuesday, October 21.
- The streamer will kick off technology earnings amid market volatility.
- Options traders expect a +/-95.70 point move, or 8% of Friday’s 1,202 stock price.
Netflix numbers to kick off technology earnings amid a volatile market backdrop
Netflix (NFLX) is set to report earnings on Tuesday, October 21, after the market close. The streaming giant will be one of the first major tech companies to report earnings this season, and it comes at a time of heightened market volatility.
Traders remain on edge after tensions reignited over trade between the United States and China following a series of escalations between the two countries. The VIX volatility index is trading at 24, the highest level for the index since May.
A positive round of tech earnings offers a route to relief for market bulls, making Netflix stand out as the first major company amid the FAAANG stocks to report numbers. The streaming giant was up about 34.5% since the start of the year as of Friday, October 17, putting it ahead of the S&P 500’s performance of +13% over the same period.
Netflix has warned recently about margin pressures in the second half of this year, as sales growth in the U.S. slows. However, there is still plenty of opportunity for in other countries where the market isn’t yet saturated, so international performance metrics will be under scrutiny.
The price increases put in place earlier this year should also help this quarter’s numbers, with Netflix increasing subscription plan prices across its pricing tiers in January for the following billing cycle.
What do investors expect
According to TradingView, Netflix is expected to post earnings per share (EPS) of $6.96 on $11.51 billion in revenue. Last year’s numbers came in at an EPS of $5.40 on $9.82 billion in revenue.
Netflix has beaten EPS and revenue estimates in every quarter over the preceding year, so a miss here, especially when volatility is elevated, could put some hurt on the stock price. Of course, beating EPS and revenue estimates will help the price reaction, but it will also hinge on commentary from management during the conference call.
A strong Q4 lineup should also help to keep the momentum going if Q3 numbers are positive. Stranger Things will be streamed on November 26, 2025, and Love Is Blind season 9 came out this month.
Trading Netflix earnings
The options market shows an expected move of +/- 95.70 points, or 8% of the current 1,202 stock price. That is in the upper range of the average 5% to 10% earnings move for S&P 500 companies.
Netflix traded with an implied volatility rank (IVR) of 40.9 as of Friday. That means volatility is slightly subdued compared with the previous twelve months of trading.
Technically, Netflix is in a vulnerable position with prices trading below the 9- and 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). It also dropped below its 50-day simple moving average earlier this week. Still, the stock is up from its recent lows traded earlier this month.
The yearly high from late June saw the stock trade as high as 1,341.15. While the expected move, if fulfilled to the upside, wouldn’t put prices at those levels, it would bring it within touching distance.
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater
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