Palantir (PLTR) Earnings on Deck: AIP Demand, Government Contracts, Profit Path
Palantir (PLTR) Earnings on Deck: AIP Demand, Government Contracts, Profit Path
By:Gus Downing
Palantir (PLTR) is set to report their Q3 FY2025 earnings on Monday, November 3, after market close.
Analyst consensus estimates call for an EPS of $0.17 and revenue of $1.1 billion.
PLTR is up 170% in 2025 after moving up 350% in 2024, currently trading at a P/E ratio of 623.
This Year
If you want a stock that’s been having a phenomenal year, look no further than Palantir. Shares are up over 170% so far in 2025, following up a preposterous 350% gain in 2024. However, these parabolic run ups have left lots of investors wondering when and how Palantir will generate enough revenue to back up their current valuation.
Palantir currently has a market cap over $460 billion, but Q2 2025 (their previous earnings call) was their first quarter ever generating $1 billion in revenue. These two factors together equate to a whopping P/E ratio of 623; for reference, GameStop’s (GME) peak P/E ratio during the infamous 2020 short squeeze was 736.
That said, the excitement of Palantir investors is not unjustified. In the aforementioned Q2 report, the company raised full-year guidance, noted that adoption of their AI platform has accelerated, and showed 93% year-over-year (YoY) growth in domestic commercial revenue and 53% YoY growth in government revenue.
The company also showed that their customer base and average spending per customer had increased, with their customer count up 43% YoY, and revealed an enterprise agreement with the U.S. Army worth over $10 billion.
This Call
Ahead of Monday’s call, consensus analyst estimates call for an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.17 and revenue of $1.1 billion. While Palantir’s reported numbers in relation to these estimates, along with forward guidance, will obviously be most important, there is no shortage of other variables in play that could impact share price.
One of the biggest of said variables is demand for and adoption of Palantir’s artificial intelligence platform, which they have very creatively named “Palantir Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP).” Any updates on new AIP customers or expansion of existing accounts could move shares. Q2’s commentary and guidance called for 50% YoY revenue growth in Q3; investors will have their eyes and ears open for whether that trajectory has sustained or changed.
Another factor will be the company’s revenue mix and any new wins or renewals on contracts. Domestic commercial revenue has been the primary growth engine for Palantir; any signs of slowdown or continued outperformance in that segment could swing investor outlook. Any new government contracts, or renewals and expansions of existing contracts, would also be a bullish driver.
The last of the bunch is Palantir’s profit path and margins. They have placed great emphasis on profitable growth to this point, so any information on gross margin, operating margin, and free cash flow could potentially move shares.
Beyond
Looking beyond this earnings call and into 2026, Palantir is facing a lot of questions. Can commercial growth stay elevated while government revenue stays steady? Can their AIP keep lifting average spend per customer? Can the company continue to excite investors enough to increase share price even at a P/E north of 600? Investors will be wary of all of these questions as Palantir tries to continue their legendary run into 2026.
Contract durability will also be a major factor. Progress under the Army’s multi-year framework and broader federal usage will shape the base of revenue over the next few years.
Palantir has been the darling of the market for almost two years now, and very well may continue that trend into 2026. However, with a P/E over 600, the bar for upside is higher, and Palantir will have to do more and more to defend their valuation.
Gus Downing is host of the tastylive Network show Risk and Reward. @GainsByGus
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