S&P 500 Aims Higher Despite Nvidia Underperformance
S&P 500 Aims Higher Despite Nvidia Underperformance
Also 10-year T-Note, Gold, Crude Oil, and Japanese Yen Futures
- S&P 500 futures: +0.09%
- 10-year T-Bond futures (/ZN): +0.10%
- Gold futures (/GC): -0.27% +0.72%
- Crude Oil (/CL): -0.94%
- Japanese Yen (/6J): +0.40%
U.S. markets were mixed Thursday morning. Nvidia’s earnings came and went without great impact on its stock price, staying well within the expected move. An hour into trading, Nvidia was only 0.8% lower. While traders didn’t immediately reward the stock, analysts took it as a positive report. That sentiment left the hype around artificial intelligence intact, which should bode well for the market in the months ahead. Initial jobless claims fell 5,000 from the prior week showing a still-strong labor market. Meanwhile, the dollar and short-term yields fell.
| Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
| /ESU5 | +0.09% |
| /NQU5 | +0.44% |
| /RTYU5 | -0.02% |
| /YMU5 | -0.03% |
S&P 500 futures (/ESU5) were 0.09% higher an hour into U.S. trading on Thursday morning. Dollar General (DG) saw a volatile start to the trading day, swinging between gains and losses following its second-quarter results, which showed that earnings and revenue came in above estimates. Bath & Body Works (BBWI) fell 10% after missing expectations for its second-quarter results. Best Buy (BBY) fell 6% after the company maintained its guidance and cited tariffs as an uncertainty in its forecast. Dell (DELL) and Ulta (ULTA) are scheduled to report after the bell today.
| Strategy: (64DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 6450 p Short 6475 p Short 6650 c Long 6675 c | 18% | +900 | -350 |
| Short Strangle | Short 6475 p Short 6650 c | 45% | +9675 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 6450 p Short 6475 p | 61% | +337.50 | -912.50 |
| Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
| /ZTZ5 | -0.02% |
| /ZFZ5 | +0.02% |
| /ZNZ5 | +0.10% |
| /ZBZ5 | +0.49% |
| /UBZ5 | +0.64% |
10-year T-Note futures rose about 0.10% Thursday morning after U.S. economic data failed to dent rate cut bets for September. While the data suggests a cut may not be needed, rate traders continue to bet on a cut in September, with Fed Fund futures showing an 87.3% chance that the Fed will cut. Today’s move puts prices for the 10-year note at the highest level traded since early May. The Treasury will auction 7-year notes today.
| Strategy (57DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 111.5 p Short 112 p Short 113.5 c Long 114 c | 31% | +328.13 | -171.88 |
| Short Strangle | Short 112 p Short 113.5 c | 53% | +1203.13 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 111.5 p Short 112 p | 73% | +187.50 | -312.50 |
| Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
| /GCZ5 | +0.72% |
| /SIZ5 | +1.23% |
| /HGU5 | +1.01% |
Gold futures (/GCZ5) found some support as Treasury yields along the short-end of the curve fell. Tomorrow’s inflation data offers the next risk event for gold prices amid ongoing concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook sued the President to challenge her firing by Trump. Still, gold remains rangebound, contained below its range on the topside of around 3,480.
| Strategy (61DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 3425 p Short 3430 p Short 3540 c Long 3545 c | 20% | +390 | -110 |
| Short Strangle | Short 3430 p Short 3540 c | 56% | +12440 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 3425 p Short 3430 p | 61% | +240 | -260 |
| Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
| /CLV5 | -0.94% |
| /HOV5 | -1.01% |
| /NGV5 | +3.29% |
| /RBV5 | -0.65% |
Crude oil prices (/CLV5) fell 0.94% Thursday morning. Traders see demand slowing after the Labor Day weekend, which officially marks the end of a high-demand season for driving in the United States. Meanwhile, the Druzhba pipeline restarted allowing oil to flow from Russia to Hungary and Slovakia. Yesterday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a larger-than-expected decline in crude oil inventory for last week. Russia attacked Ukraine overnight with drones, which marks the largest attack on the Ukrainian city since President Trump and President Putin met earlier this month.
| Strategy (49DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 61 p Short 61.5 p Short 65.5 c Long 66 c | 23% | +360 | -140 |
| Short Strangle | Short 61.5 p Short 65.5 c | 53% | +3800 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 61 p Short 61.5 p | 58% | +190 | -310 |
| Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
| /6AU5 | +0.40% |
| /6BU5 | +0.20% |
| /6CU5 | +0.35% |
| /6EU5 | +0.50% |
| /6JU5 | +0.40% |
Japanese Yen futures moved higher Thursday, although prices remain contained to the August range. Tokyo core consumer prices are set to cross the wires tonight (early Japan hours), which should help to inform the outlook on monetary policy. The inflation gauge is expected to fall from July’s +2.9% year-over-year figure. The Bank of Japan is expected to increase rates in October, although some traders see a small chance for a September increase. An above-estimate inflation reading tonight could help to bolster bets for the September cut, which would likely help the Yen.
| Strategy (71DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 0.00675 p Short 0.0068 p Short 0.007 c Long 0.00705 c | 31% | +400 | -225 |
| Short Strangle | Short 0.0068 p Short 0.007 c | 56% | +1925 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 0.00675 p Short 0.0068 p | 70% | +225 | -400 |
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater
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