S&P 500’s Weak Start to a Seasonally-Soft September as Gold Hits All-Time High
S&P 500’s Weak Start to a Seasonally-Soft September as Gold Hits All-Time High
Also 10-year T-Note, Gold, Crude Oil, and Japanese Yen Futures
- S&P 500 E-mini futures (/ES): -0.85%
- 10-year T-Note futures (/ZN): -0.18%
- Gold futures (/GC): +1.43%
- Crude Oil futures (/CL): +1.34%
- Japanese Yen futures (/6J): -0.69%
September has been a bad month for basically everything over the past two decades: stocks are down, bonds are down, metals are down, cryptos are down, non-USD currencies are down. September 2025 is off to a familiar start: equities and bonds are weaker, and the U.S. Dollar is surging. Worries around the health of U.S. President Donald Trump were curtailed this morning when it was announced he would speak today at 2pm ET/1pm CT on the relocation of the Space Force HQ from Colorado to Alabama.
| Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
| /ESU5 | -0.85% |
| /NQU5 | -1.03% |
| /RTYU5 | -0.59% |
| /YMU5 | -0.66% |
S&P 500 futures (/ESU5) fell about -1% Tuesday morning as investors took profits on big technology names to start September trading. Seasonally, September is a historically poor month for equity returns and prices were trading near record highs in August. PepsiCo Inc (PEP) rose nearly 3% after The Wall Street Journal reported that activist Elliott Management took a $4 billion stake in the company. Constellation Brands (STZ) fell 7% after the beverage producer cut its full-year guidance on weak consumer demand. Signet Jewelers (SIG) rose 1% after beating estimates. Zscaler (ZS) is scheduled to report earnings after the bell today. Tomorrow morning, Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Macy’s (M) will report earnings.
| Strategy: (42DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 6000 p Short 6050 p Short 6750 c Long 6800 c | 64% | +512.50 | -1987.50 |
| Short Strangle | Short 6050 p Short 6750 c | 70% | +2775 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 6000 p Short 6050 p | 88% | +245 | -2255 |
| Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
| /ZTZ5 | +0.23% |
| /ZFZ5 | +0.04% |
| /ZNZ5 | -0.18% |
| /ZBZ5 | -0.49% |
| /UBZ5 | -0.62% |
Yields rose across the curve after a court decision casted doubt over the Trump administration's tariffs. The revenue collected on those tariffs may have to be returned if the decision survives an appeal to the Supreme Court. 10-year T-note futures (/ZNZ5) fell 0.21% in early trading. Yields traded near the lows of the month last week as Fed rate cut bets for September increased. Manufacturing PMI data came in near estimates this morning and we’ll get a look at the services side of the U.S. economy with PMI data later this week.
| Strategy (52DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 109 p Short 110 p Short 115 c Long 116 c | 69% | +187.50 | -812.50 |
| Short Strangle | Short 110 p Short 115 c | 73% | +390.63 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 109 p Short 110 p | 89% | +109.38 | -890.63 |
| Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
| /GCZ5 | +1.43% |
| /SIZ5 | +1.71% |
| /HGZ5 | -0.02% |
Gold prices (/GCZ5) rose over 1% this morning, with the metal benefiting from the risk-off tone across financial markets. The uncertainty in the market combined with the prospect of interest rate cuts coming as soon as this month is helping to support the metal. Prices are trading near record highs, and uncertainty around the Fed’s independence continues to linger, further supporting the metal. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde commented on the potential fallout to the economy earlier this week, saying that it would pose a “very serious danger” to the economy.
| Strategy (56DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 3350 p Short 3375 p Short 3800 c Long 3825 c | 62% | +820 | -1680 |
| Short Strangle | Short 3375 p Short 3800 c | 71% | +5330 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 3350 p Short 3375 p | 82% | +440 | -2060 |
| Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
| /CLV5 | +1.34% |
| /HOV5 | +3.07% |
| /NGV5 | -3.24% |
| /RBV5 | +2.42% |
Crude oil prices (/CLV5) started the month higher after the commodity fell over 7% in August to mark the worst month since April for the commodity. Russia has stepped up its attacks on Ukraine recently, putting a potential cease fire in doubt following the recent meeting between President Trump and President Putin in Alaska last month. Ukraine has launched its own attacks targeting Russia’s oil-processing capacity, further supporting the market. Traders are waiting for an OPEC meeting this weekend when the group will decide on rolling back the remainder of its voluntary production cuts.
| Strategy (44DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 62.5 p Short 63 p Short 66.5 c Long 67 c | 21% | +370 | -130 |
| Short Strangle | Short 63 p Short 66.5 c | 52% | +3950 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 62.5 p Short 63 p | 58% | +200 | -300 |
| Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
| /6AU5 | -0.37% |
| /6BU5 | -0.74% |
| /6CU5 | -0.42% |
| /6EU5 | -0.18% |
| /6JU5 | -0.69% |
Japanese Yen futures (/6JU5) fell to start the week after Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino failed to provide a clear timeline for rate cuts. Instead, Mr. Himino suggested that rate cuts would depend on market conditions. Those comments disappointed traders betting on rate hikes. The Yen was mostly stable through August trading and prices are now trading near the low end of the August trading range.
| Strategy (66DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 0.0067 p Short 0.00695 c Long 0.007 c | 32% | +400 | -225 |
| Short Strangle | Short 0.00675 p Short 0.00695 c | 57% | +1837.50 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 0.0067 p Short 0.00675 p | 68% | +237.50 | -387.50 |
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater
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