Sell in May and Go Away?
Does the popular saying "sell in May and go away" stand up to scrutiny? Since 1994, the S&P 500 has increased 59% of the time in May, with an average gain of 0.5%, but with a relatively modest (historically) ± 3.9%. May through August has seen a relatively lower percentage of up months, but still leans bullish positive drift.
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Last week's spreadsheet was so popular, we decided to provide another link to it this week. You'll need Excel with Macros enabled.
The link can be found HERE.
Tesla (TSLA) has had a nice rally off the lows in April of around $275. With no shortage of news-driven or Elon commentary binary events, volatility has remained high with an IVR of 30. If you think the stock might remain rangebound for a bit, an iron condor short the 300/285 put spread and the 400/415 call spread trades at $4.90 and covers the range between two big beautiful round numbers.
The market is up, bonds are getting killed and interest rates going higher, but gold remains bid? Gold futures /GC have bounced off the 3150-3200 multiple times –maybe that's the low here. If you think it might grind higher but don't want the downside risk, a call broken wing butterfly in GLD long the 305, short 2x the 310, and long 1x the 320 trades at a $0.40 credit with a breakeven up around the highs.
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Michael Rechenthin, Ph.D., (aka “Dr. Data”), managing director of research and development, has 25 years of trading and markets experience. He’s known best for his weekly Cherry Picks newsletter. On Thursdays, he appears on Trades from the Research Team LIVE.
Nick Battista, tastylive director of market intelligence, has a decade of trading experience. He appears Monday-Friday on Options Trading Concepts Live. On Wednesdays, he co-hosts Johnny Trades. @tradernickybat
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