S&P 500 Holds Gains as USD Surge Weighs Down Commodities
S&P 500 Holds Gains as USD Surge Weighs Down Commodities
Also, 10-year T-note, gold, crude oil and Japanese yen futures
- S&P 500 E-mini futures (/ES): +0.05%
- 10-year T-note futures (/ZN): -0.16%
- Gold futures (/GC): +0.12%
- Crude oil futures (/CL): +1.07%
- Japanese yen futures (/6J): -0.38%
A relatively quiet earnings and macro calendar for today has markets continuing to focus on the latest appointment news from the Trump transition team. Thus far, no secretary of the treasury has been named, though Yale professor and macro investing legend Scott Bessent remains the frontrunner, per Kalshi. U.S. equity markets are grinding higher in low volume, while bonds are losing recent gains. Elsewhere, metals are trying to find some footing after steep declines in recent days, while the U.S. dollar (via $DXY) has surged to its highest level since late June.
Meanwhile, spot bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $89,983.
Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
/ESZ4 | +0.05% |
/NQZ4 | -0.01% |
/RTYZ4 | -0.11% |
/YMZ4 | +0.24% |
U.S. equity futures were mostly flat this morning after posting fresh record highs to start the week. Shopify (SHOP) rose over 20% in pre-market trading after the Canadian e-commerce giant posted stellar numbers for earnings and raised guidance. Home Depot (HD) was up 1.5% ahead of the bell after posting a 6% year-over-year increase in sales. Plug Power (PLUG) fell 3% after missing expectations.
Strategy: (37DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 5975 p Short 5980 p Short 6090 c Long 6100 c | 55% | +295 | -205 |
Short Strangle | Short 5980 p Short 6090 c | 45% | +6825 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 5975 p Short 5980 p | 60% | +75 | -175 |
Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
/ZTZ4 | -0.04% |
/ZFZ4 | -0.10% |
/ZNZ4 | -0.16% |
/ZBZ4 | -0.32% |
/UBZ4 | -0.30% |
Bonds extended losses on today, with 10-year T-note futures (/ZNZ4) down 0.24%, as investors see U.S. deficits widening after election results showed a stronghold for Republicans across the House and Senate. Several Fed speakers are scheduled for today, including Christopher Waller and Neel Kashkari.
Strategy (45DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 108.5 p Short 109 p Short 110.5 c Long 111 c | 28% | +343.75 | -156.25 |
Short Strangle | Short 109 p Short 110.5 c | 52% | +1406.25 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 108.5 p Short 109 p | 71% | +171.88 | -328.13 |
Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
/GCZ4 | +0.12% |
/SIZ4 | +0.82% |
/HGZ4 | -1.30% |
Gold prices (/GCZ4) moderated this morning but remained down nearly 3% on the week after yesterday’s sell-off. The metal is on track for its biggest weekly loss since May. A higher terminal rate for U.S. interest rates was priced in after President-elect Donald Trump won the election, prompting traders to price in more inflation via deficit pressures.
Strategy (44DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 2605 p Short 2610 p Short 2680 c Long 2685 c | 19% | +380 | -120 |
Short Strangle | Short 2610 p Short 2680 c | 50% | +7280 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 2605 p Short 2610 p | 62% | +190 | -310 |
Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
/CLZ4 | +1.07% |
/HOZ4 | +1.34% |
/NGZ4 | +0.21% |
/RBZ4 | +1.33% |
Crude oil prices (/CLZ4) bounced this morning despite ongoing strength in the dollar. OPEC cut its oil demand growth forecast for this year and also trimmed its projection for 2025 this week. Oil remains below $70 per barrel even after OPEC+ pushed back plans to revive some production that was voluntarily cut. Traders will have their eyes on the inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute today.
Strategy (34DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 67 p Short 67.5 p Short 71 c Long 71.5 c | 19% | +380 | -120 |
Short Strangle | Short 67.5 p Short 71 c | 48% | +4090 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 67 p Short 67.5 p | 55% | +220 | -280 |
Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
/6AZ4 | -0.36% |
/6BZ4 | -0.55% |
/6CZ4 | -0.10% |
/6EZ4 | -0.29% |
/6JZ4 | -0.38% |
Japanese yen futures (/6JZ4) is down this morning for the second consecutive day, and prices are now threatening to break below last week’s multi-month lows. The weak yen is a benefit for the country’s exporters, but it puts pressure on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) as the central bank moves to gently tighten its monetary policy setting. If last week’s lows break, it could bring intervention risk front and center.
Strategy (52DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 0.00645 p Short 0.0065 p Short 0.00665 c Long 0.0067 c | 29% | +425 | -200 |
Short Strangle | Short 0.0065 p Short 0.00665 c | 54% | +1725 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 0.00645 p
| 68% | +225 | -400 |
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
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