S&P 500 Starts July Quietly After Wrapping Up Remarkable First Half of 2025
S&P 500 Starts July Quietly After Wrapping Up Remarkable First Half of 2025
Also, 30-year T-bond, gold, crude oil and Japanese yen futures
- S&P 500 E-mini futures (/ES): -0.14%
- 30-year T-bond futures (/ZB): -0.3%
- Gold futures (/GC): +1.71%
- Crude oil futures (/CL): +0.48%
- Japanese yen futures (/6J): +0.58%
The second quarter ended with a bang, but the third is starting with a whimper. The Nasdaq 100 is lagging behind and President Donald Trump told a gaggle of reporters he’d “look” into having Elon Musk deported. Meanwhile, Tesla shares are dragging down the tech-heavy index. Elsewhere, the May US job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) showed another unexpected surge in job openings, which are now at their highest level since November 2024.
| Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
| /ESU5 | -0.14% |
| /NQU5 | -0.44% |
| /RTYU5 | 0% |
| /YMU5 | +0.51% |
S&P 500 futures fell after hitting a fresh all-time high yesterday day to end the first half of the year. Traders are focused on headlines as the 90-day pause is set to expire for tariffs. Tesla (TSLA) fell over 5% in pre-market trading after Trump suggested the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) should look into the car maker’s subsidies. Sweetgreen (SG) traded 3.5% lower after a downgrade from TD Cowen.
| Strategy: (45DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 5875 p Short 5925 p Short 6625 c Long 6675 c | 63% | +472.50 | -2027.50 |
| Short Strangle | Short 5925 p Short 6625 c | 68% | +2800 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 5875 p Short 5925 p | 81% | +312.50 | -2187.50 |
| Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
| /ZTU5 | -0.11% |
| /ZFU5 | -0.24% |
| /ZNU5 | -0.31% |
| /ZBU5 | -0.3% |
| /UBU5 | -0.18% |
Bonds had their best first half of the year since 2020, as traders bet on a Federal Reserve that will cut interest rates later this year. 30-year T-bond futures (/ZBU5) rose 0.08% ahead of the opening bell, pushing prices further into the highest levels since early May. This week’s non-farm payrolls report will be key for deciding whether the Fed can push ahead with interest rate cuts or not.
| Strategy (52DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 108 p Short 110 p Short 119 c Long 121 c | 61% | +515.63 | -1484.38 |
| Short Strangle | Short 110 p Short 119 c | 66% | +1171.88 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 108 p Short 110 p | 86% | +203.13 | -1796.88 |
| Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
| /GCQ5 | +1.71% |
| /SIU5 | +1.16% |
| /HGU5 | +2.01% |
Gold prices jumped this morning as market sentiment declined in the early US trading hours. Some upside in bond prices pushed yields lower to the benefit of precious metals. The weak dollar as of late may come back into focus as traders continue to assess Federal Reserve interest rate cut bets. A weak jobs report on Thursday could pull those bets forward and allow gold to rechallenge the June swing high.
| Strategy (56DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 3340 p Short 3345 p Short 3450 c Long 3455 c | 39% | +470 | -540 |
| Short Strangle | Short 3345 p Short 3450 c | 38% | +11790 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 3340 p Short 3345 p | 61% | +220 | -280 |
| Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
| /CLQ5 | +0.48% |
| /HOQ5 | +1.34% |
| /NGQ5 | -4.14% |
| /RBQ5 | +0.33% |
Crude oil prices (/CLU5) edged higher this morning, rising about 0.33% to trade around 65.35. Traders expect OPEC+ to increase production in August at a meeting later this week, likely by another 411,000 barrels per day (bpd). Meanwhile, the tariff deadlines are creating some anxiety, as levies could increase after the July 9 deadline. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release inventory data later today.
| Strategy (45DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 56 p Short 57 p Short 73 c Long 74 c | 64% | +230 | -770 |
| Short Strangle | Short 57 p Short 73 c | 71% | +1460 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 56 p Short 57 p | 83% | +140 | -860 |
| Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
| /6AU5 | -0.03% |
| /6BU5 | +0.03% |
| /6CU5 | -0.1% |
| /6EU5 | +0.16% |
| /6JU5 | +0.58% |
British Pound futures (/6BU5) were little changed this morning, rising by about 0.03%. Prices rose to the highest levels since 2021 last week, with a slower pace of cutting expected for the Bank of England vs. the Federal Reserve, which is helping to support the currency amid broader dollar weakness. Yesterday, housing data in the UK came in above expectations for mortgage approvals, but consumer credit saw a drop off from the previous month.
| Strategy (38DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 1.36 p Short 1.365 p Short 1.385 c Long 1.39 c | 28% | ++225 | -87.50 |
| Short Strangle | Short 1.365 p Short 1.385 c | 56% | +1212.50 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 1.36 p Short 1.365 p | 66% | +125 | -187.50 |
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater
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