Tesla Earnings Preview: Robotaxi, FSD, and Optimus Take Center Stage
Tesla Earnings Preview: Robotaxi, FSD, and Optimus Take Center Stage
Tesla earnings: Optimus, FSD, and Robotaxi in focus
Tesla is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, April 22, after the bell. Management, including Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, will hold a conference call with investors.
The Say platform has compiled questions from investors, with the top-ranked questions—based on votes weighted by share count, out of over a thousand submitted questions. On top of investors’ minds seem to be questions around the Optimus v3 reveal, unsupervised FSD (Full Self-Driving), and the robotaxi.
Optimus v3 is Tesla’s third-generation humanoid robot. The main advancement from the past iteration will be human-like hands with 22 degrees of freedom. Low-volume production is expected to start this summer and then a full ramp-up next year. Optimus is pivotal to Tesla’s robotics play.
Full Self-Driving (FSD) will also be another point that investors want to hear management talk about. Hardware 3 (HW3) customers, those with vehicles produced from 2019 to mid-2022, want to know when FSD will be available. There is worry that HW4 will be required for unsupervised FSD, which could invite legal risk for Tesla since customers who bought FSD packages for those cars would likely never get it.
Investors are also awaiting commentary on the Robotaxi program and when it will expand beyond Texas. Ride numbers and revenue per mile, along with the safety record, could all come under scrutiny. Tesla recently expanded its unsupervised Robotaxi service to Dallas and Houston.
What do investors expect
According to TradingView, analysts expect Tesla’s earnings per share (EPS) to cross the wires at $0.36 on $22.27 billion in revenue. That would compare to an EPS of $0.27 and revenue of $19.34 billion a year ago. Last quarter, Tesla posted EPS of $0.50 on $24.9 billion.
Tesla beat on estimates last quarter, but the price reaction was negative the next trading day, dropping 3.45% before continuing lower over the following week. Investors were put off by a decline in full-year revenue and a larger-than-expected capital expenditure outlook.
Trading Tesla earnings
Tesla traded with an implied volatility rank (IVR) of 14.8 on Tuesday, April 21. The IVR means that volatility in Tesla is lower than average compared to the past twelve months. The options market shows an expected move of +/- 21.74 points for earnings, or 5.6% of Tuesday’s 386.41 closing price.
Technically, Tesla is in breakout territory, recently surging above its downward trendline from December when the stock entered a multi-month selloff. Last week, prices surged above the 9- and 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) before briefly piercing the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).
Prices have since cooled off, but they remain above former trendline resistance, which could turn into support from here. A positive earnings report would undoubtedly help sustain the recent momentum.
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