United Airlines (UAL) Earnings Tuesday: Transatlantic/Pacific Trends, PRASM, CASM
United Airlines (UAL) Earnings Tuesday: Transatlantic/Pacific Trends, PRASM, CASM
By:Gus Downing
United Airlines (UAL) is set to report their Q4 and full-year FY2025 results on Tuesday, January 20, after market close.
Analyst consensus estimates call for an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.93 on revenue of $15.4 billion for Q4.
Q3’s earnings report came in above expectations, and management raised guidance for Q4 during that call.
PRASM, CASM, transatlantic and Pacific operations, loyalty economics, and 2026 guidance will be the key factors in this report.
Where UAL Stands Today
In October’s Q3 FY2025 report, United beat EPS expectations by about 5% and met revenue expectations. Management adjusted Q4’s outlook slightly higher, citing momentum from customer loyalty. Their revenue mix has begun to lean more heavily into international and premium options, as Pacific and transatlantic strength have helped offset softer main cabin trends.
Key Swing Factors This Quarter
International vs. Domestic, Premium vs. Main
For all airlines, one of the biggest determinants of revenue is Passenger Revenue per Airline Seat Mile, typically referred to as PRASM. United is no exception, and on this call, investors will be eager to hear how United’s PRASM looks with regards to international vs. domestic flights, and with regards to premium vs. main cabin demand. Management’s guidance on domestic PRASM headed into Q1 will also be a key variable, as stabilization there paired with continued fortitude on long-haul flights would be very bullish for the company.
Margins 101: CASM ex-Fuel and Exposure
The offset to PRASM is Cost per Airline Seat Mile, or CASM. Any information from United’s higher-ups on CASM trajectory into Q1 and 2026 as a whole will be critical, along with any guidance on fuel sensitivities. Investors also want to hear details on operational efficiency, and any lingering one-off costs from 2025 that could continue into 2026. United differs from many of their peers in that they do not hedge extensively against fuel costs; how they frame that exposure will matter headed into Q1.
Long-Haul Cadence and Network Mix
As previously mentioned, international routes were a major driver for UAL in 2025, and any changes to capacity plans for their long-haul franchises would certainly have the propensity to move shares. This impact would become especially pronounced if corporate demand is improving or leisure demand is normalizing. Any commentary on Boeing or Airbus delivery timing, and whether there are spillovers to 2026 schedules, would also fit into this category.
MileagePlus: The Loyalty Cash Engine
Loyalty economics are also an important piece for United, along with all of their peers. Management indicated in their Q3 report that customer loyalty was a major revenue driver, and any updates on MileagePlus cash flows, card remuneration, and redemption behavior could help to cushion the inherently cyclical nature of their revenue. Q4’s loyalty numbers, as well as any direction for 2026, could incite a move in share price.
Building the 2026 Bridge
Finally, as is true with all companies headed into every new year, 2026 guidance will be very important. Investors will want to hear about the initial 2026 EPS and free cash flow framework, as well as the capital expenditure and leverage goals for the new year. If management gives guidance that indicates a clear bridge from Q4, it would help the stock, especially if international strength persists and domestic trends show signs of stability.
Reading UAL Through the DAL Lens
With Delta having already reported their Q4 FY2025 earnings this week, it’s easy to assume that United may have already priced in some of the information that is to come. While the two companies share some major similarities, there are also some key differences between them that are worth noting headed into UAL’s report.
The two main similarities lie in revenue mix and cost controls; both are leaning on international strength, along with premium and corporate demand, to support PRASM into early 2026. Additionally, both are laser-focused on cost control and margin guardrails, with fuel as a key macro swing factor.
The two main differences are the biggest leverage spots and fuel sourcing; Delta’s main lever is their loyalty cash engine via American Express, while United’s is outsized long-haul exposure in the Atlantic and Pacific. As far as fuel, Delta is heavily intertwined with Monroe refinery dynamics, while United is more directly exposed to spot fuel.
While PRASM and CASM persist, leverage and fuel sourcing differentiate Delta from United, and investors should be wary of assuming that the latter will have the same post-earnings trajectory as the former.
Gus Downing is host of the tastylive Network show Risk and Reward. @GainsByGus
For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the tastylive YouTube channel.
Trade with a better broker, open a tastytrade account today. tastylive Inc. and tastytrade Inc. are separate but affiliated companies.
Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.
tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. tastylive is not in the business of transacting securities trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client’s situation or investment objectives. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read the applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange-Traded Options Risk Disclosure found on tastytrade.com/disclosures.
tastytrade, Inc. ("tastytrade”) is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, NFA, and SIPC. tastytrade was previously known as tastyworks, Inc. (“tastyworks”). tastytrade offers self-directed brokerage accounts to its customers. tastytrade does not give financial or trading advice, nor does it make investment recommendations. You alone are responsible for making your investment and trading decisions and for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of tastytrade’s systems, services or products. tastytrade is a wholly-owned subsidiary of tastylive, Inc.
tastytrade has entered into a Marketing Agreement with tastylive (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade. tastytrade and Marketing Agent are separate entities with their own products and services. tastylive is the parent company of tastytrade.
tastyfx, LLC (“tastyfx”) is a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) registered Retail Foreign Exchange Dealer (RFED) and Introducing Broker (IB) and Forex Dealer Member (FDM) of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) (NFA ID 0509630). Leveraged trading in foreign currency or off-exchange products on margin carries significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. We advise you to carefully consider whether trading is appropriate for you based on your personal circumstances as you may lose more than you invest.
tastycrypto is provided solely by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. tasty Software Solutions, LLC is a separate but affiliate company of tastylive, Inc. Neither tastylive nor any of its affiliates are responsible for the products or services provided by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. Cryptocurrency trading is not suitable for all investors due to the number of risks involved. The value of any cryptocurrency, including digital assets pegged to fiat currency, commodities, or any other asset, may go to zero.
© copyright 2013 - 2026 tastylive, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Applicable portions of the Terms of Use on tastylive.com apply. Reproduction, adaptation, distribution, public display, exhibition for profit, or storage in any electronic storage media in whole or in part is prohibited under penalty of law, provided that you may download tastylive’s podcasts as necessary to view for personal use. tastylive was previously known as tastytrade, Inc. tastylive is a trademark/servicemark owned by tastylive, Inc.
Your privacy choices