UPS Q3 Earnings Preview: Trading UPS Earnings Near Multi-Year Lows
UPS Q3 Earnings Preview: Trading UPS Earnings Near Multi-Year Lows
- United Parcel Service (UPS) is set to report Q3 earnings on Tuesday, October 28.
- The stock fell to a multi-year low earlier this month as trade war fears weighed.
- Options traders see an expected move of +/- 6.17 points, or 7% of Monday’s stock price.
United Parcel Service (UPS) to post Q3 earnings after stock puts in a multi-year low
United Parcel Service (UPS) is set to announce third-quarter fiscal earnings on Tuesday, October 28, before the market open.
The transportation and logistics company will provide the market insights into global shipping trends amid ongoing trade tensions between the United States and other countries. UPS previously said that tariffs could impact its operations and the costs for its customers.
Meanwhile, U.S. customers are facing delays for receiving international orders because of the removal of “de minimis” tariff exemption on August 29. Packages worth less than $800 were previously permitted into the United States without a duty. However, those packages now face increased rates depending on where they were shipped from.
The broader implications of protectionist policies enacted by the United States this year have made the operating environment much more difficult for UPS. This is highlighted in its stock performance, with a -29% year-to-date performance. In fact, earlier this month UPS dropped to its lowest level since early 2013. It’s since rallied about 6%.
What do investors expect?
According to TradingView, analysts expect UPS to post earnings per share (EPS) of $1.30 on $20.84 billion in revenue. That would compare to last year’s EPS of $1.76 on $22.2 billion in revenue. Last quarter, EPS came in at $1.55 on $21.2 billion in revenue.
UPS missed its EPS estimate last quarter but managed to beat on revenue, albeit modestly. However, the company did manage to beat EPS in the prior three quarters. For revenue, UPS beat revenue expectations in the first two quarters of 2025.
Back in July, UPS announced a cost-cutting initiative of $3.5 billion as it streamlines its operational framework. The initiative includes reduced headcount and flights, along with reducing options for customers who are less profitable. There is also an increased focus on health care logistics.
Trading UPS earnings
UPS traded at multi-year lows in October, but prices have swung higher over the past several weeks. Prices are now trading above the 9- and 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). This puts it in a favorable technical position ahead of earnings.
The options market shows an expected move of +/- 6.17 points, or 7% of Monday’s 88.92 stock price. That is in the middle of the average 5% to 10% earnings move for S&P 500 companies.
UPS traded with an implied volatility rank (IVR) of 51.6, meaning that volatility is slightly higher than where it’s traded over the past twelve months. If the expected move to the downside comes to pass, it would put prices just above the monthly multi-year low.
Alternatively, there is still a lot of work to do on the way up, with prices trading above 100 from back in July. Traders who want to get long likely believe that UPS has already put in its low and are attracted by the discounted price compared to the past couple years of trading. Still, a miss on earnings and/or poor guidance could likely send the stock lower. Traders should also consider that the trade war seems to be alive and well, which would undoubtedly impact UPS in some form or fashion.
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater
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