Walmart Earnings Preview: Record Profits Expected as Stock Hovers Near All-Time High
Walmart Earnings Preview: Record Profits Expected as Stock Hovers Near All-Time High
The retailing giant reports earnings tomorrow (Thursday) amid concern about tariffs
- Walmart is scheduled to report quarterly earnings tomorrow.
- Investors expect to see record-breaking annual sales for the value company.
- Its stock is trading with an elevated implied volatility rank (IVR) of 81.6 ahead of earnings.
Walmart (WMT) is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings results tomorrow (Thursday), before the market opens. Leadership will host a conference call at 7:00 a.m. CST to discuss the results.
The value chain is expected to report record sales for the year at its 4,609 stores in the United States. it will be one of the first major retailers to unveil results for the latest holiday spending period. Investors see its results as a proxy for U.S. consumer health because it is one of the largest retailers.
Walmart stock has gotten off to a great start in 2025, rising by about 16% from the start of the year. That performance is well above the S&P 500’s 3.7% increase over the same time frame, even though U.S. indexes trade near all-time highs. However, some investors are concerned about President Trump’s tariff policies because Walmart heavily sources its inventory from abroad to provide lower prices compared to domestically sourced products. In fact, Walmart is the largest importer of containerized goods, according to a report from Reuters.
Leadership will likely discuss the affect of tariffs and the potential impact on profits during the conference call. A downbeat outlook around the impact of trade measures could sap some of the positive momentum in the stock. Deportation policies may also be discussed, which could affect labor costs and ultimately the prices consumers pay for produce.
What do investors expect?
Analysts expect Walmart’s earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter to cross the wires at $0.65, according to TradingView. Revenue is expected to come in at $180 billion—a record high for the company.
A year ago, Walmart reported EPS of $0.60 on $173.4 billion in revenue. Last quarter, EPS was at $0.58 on revenue of $169.6 billion.
Walmart has a good record of beating expectations, surpassing estimates in four of the last four periods on both EPS and revenue.
Trading Walmart earnings
Walmart trades with an implied volatility rank (IVR) of 81.7, meaning volatility is elevated compared to the past 12 months of trading. The expected move per the options market calls for +/- 4.89 points, or 4.7% of the current stock price.
Walmart is trading just short of all-time highs. The lofty expectations present a problem, given they leave more room for disappointment. However, a pullback in the price could see potential support at the swing high base set through December around the 96 level. Alternatively, prices at all-time highs leaves little possible resistance if results impress.
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. #@fxwestwater
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