What Does Peanut the Squirrel Tell Us About the 2024 Election?
You read that title right. We’re asking the hard-hitting questions here at tastylive on election day, looking for clues as to whether Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States. We can look at The Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight, or RealClearPolitics. But that’s what everyone else is doing!
So in honor of the tastylive Unspecial: 2024 Elecouttion, here’s an unspecial look at how the election might turn out, using Google Trends to tap into the cultural zeitgeist: which states are searching for “peanut squirrel” vs. “Kamala SNL.” Let me explain …
Over the weekend, Harris appeared on Saturday Night Live (SNL) as the cold open guest. Because the program aired at 11:30 p.m. EST, most people were watching archives and clips the next day. Likewise on Saturday, the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation announced it had euthanized beloved internet personality Peanut or P’Nut the Squirrel, sending right wing-associated social media into a frenzy.
Thus was borne the Google Trends Electoral College map (courtesy of X; source unknown, but please let us know!):
This is all fun and games of course, until we distill this complex, serious forecasting methodology into actual electoral votes:
If the internet has its way, it appears Harris will beat Trump and become the next president of the United States. Bettors beware! Political betting markets would be offsides if the great “Kamala SNL”/“peanut squirrel” divide persists. As of 3:15 p.m. EST on election day 2024, traders were pricing in a 57% chance Trump would win the election on Kalshi:
Who will be right? Tune in to the tastylive Unspecial: 2024 Election tonight, Tuesday November 5, at 7pm ET/6pm CT.
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro.
Trade with a better broker, open a tastytrade account today. tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. are separate but affiliated companies.
Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.