Did the GOP Debate Move the Needle?
Sep 28, 2023
Former President Trump apparently made the right call. He skipped the GOP presidential debate last night and rose two points in this morning's prediction markets.
Before the debate at the Ronald Reagan library in Simi Valley, California, Luckbox reviewed PredictIt's GOP Presidential Nominee market to see where the candidates stood among those willing to put money on the line.
On PredictIt, Trump traded at 72 cents, far ahead of his rivals. Nikki Haley, former South Carolina governor and one-time United Nations ambassador, was second at 11 cents.
In prediction market parlance, where binary options assign real-time pricing to various election and political outcomes, there is an implied correlation between the (1¢-99¢) "price" a candidate trades at and the probability of that specific outcome.
In other words, before the GOP debate, prediction market traders had assigned a 72% probability that Trump will be the eventual GOP nominee.
Also, pre-debate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy were tied at 9 cents. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was at 4, while Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina and former Vice President Mike Pence were tied at 2 cents each.
At 4 cents, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin—not a declared candidate—ranked equal to or higher than Christie, Scott and Pence.
The PredictIt website enables users to bet on the outcomes of political events, including elections. In 2014, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a no-action letter to the New Zealand-based website, which allowed the company to operate without having to register as a futures exchange.
However, in 2022, the CFTC withdrew the no-action letter, arguing that PredictIt had violated the terms of the letter by offering bets on events that were not related to commodities and ordered it to shut down. As of July 21, 2023, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals awarded PredictIt an injunction to continue operations under exemptive relief while the court reviews the case.
Elsewhere, Trump, who leads by 42.2 points, according to RealClearPolitics, which showed DeSantis with an aggregate polling average at 14.4%, Haley with 5.8% and Ramaswamy at 5.1%.
The debate and price movement the following morning, indicate Trump’s absence did not hurt his prospects. His price rose to 74 cents after a rally at a non-union auto parts plant during the United Auto Workers union strike. Top runnerup Haley held her own at 11 cents, while DeSantis’ stronger performance brought him up to 10 cents. Ramaswamy, Christie, Scott and Pence all fell, with Ramaswamy tumbling the most by 3 cents. As the target of the night, Ramaswamy took shots from all of the candidates about his relations with China, his use of TikTok and his political inexperience.
A Drudge Report poll drew nearly 100,000 responses and aligned with the prediction market pricing. Thirty-seven percent of respondents said Haley won, compared with 22% for DeSantis. Ramaswamy came third and Pence came last.
A speaking analysis in The New York Times recorded how many minutes each candidate spoke, putting DeSantis at 12 minutes and 27 seconds, Ramaswamy at 11 minutes and 53 seconds, and second-to-last Haley at 9 minutes and 5 seconds.
In an unusual upcoming matchup, DeSantis is scheduled to debate Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Nov. 30. Sean Hannity of Fox News will moderate.
Navpreet Dhillon is the associate editor at Luckbox magazine.
Trade with a better broker, open a tastytrade account today. tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. are separate but affiliated companies.
Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.
tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. tastylive is not in the business of transacting securities trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client’s situation or investment objectives. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read the applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange-Traded Options Risk Disclosure found on tastytrade.com/disclosures.
tastytrade, Inc. ("tastytrade”) is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, NFA, and SIPC. tastytrade was previously known as tastyworks, Inc. (“tastyworks”). tastytrade offers self-directed brokerage accounts to its customers. tastytrade does not give financial or trading advice, nor does it make investment recommendations. You alone are responsible for making your investment and trading decisions and for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of tastytrade’s systems, services or products. tastytrade is a wholly-owned subsidiary of tastylive, Inc.
tastytrade has entered into a Marketing Agreement with tastylive (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade. tastytrade and Marketing Agent are separate entities with their own products and services. tastylive is the parent company of tastytrade.
tastycrypto is provided solely by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. tasty Software Solutions, LLC is a separate but affiliate company of tastylive, Inc. Neither tastylive nor any of its affiliates are responsible for the products or services provided by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. Cryptocurrency trading is not suitable for all investors due to the number of risks involved. The value of any cryptocurrency, including digital assets pegged to fiat currency, commodities, or any other asset, may go to zero.