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Market Measures

Weekly 0DTE Breakdown Trading into FOMC -- Post-FOMC Achieves 100% Win Rate in the Past Three Years

| Dec 15, 2025
Up Next
    Market Measures

    Weekly 0DTE Breakdown Trading into FOMC -- Post-FOMC Achieves 100% Win Rate in the Past Three Years

    Dec 15, 2025
    Hosts Nick and Tony explored Kai's comprehensive three-year FOMC zero-DTE study revealing dramatic differences between morning and post-announcement entries. The 8:30am entry data showed 19 winners versus 4 losers (83% success rate matching non-FOMC days) but disappointing $4 average P&L despite collecting $5.80 credits - the tail losses from binary event risk overwhelming the higher premiums. In stark contrast, the 1:05pm post-announcement entry achieved perfect 23-for-23 success with $184 average P&L and 49-minute average hold times ($200+/hour). The Wednesday FOMC chart visualization showed premiums completely flat from 8:30am through 1pm despite price movement, with VIX-1D actually rising in some periods even as SPX stayed range-bound. Kai emphasized from personal trading experience that premiums often increase during the waiting period (contrary to typical decay), making the morning session essentially "worthless" for zero-day trading. The study reinforced skipping FOMC entirely or waiting for 1pm vol crush, with Friday's reversal providing second example where early position turned from winner to max loser for those who didn't take profits at noon when SPX briefly touched 6850.

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