You won't need to use a calculator app to see that what at first glance appears to be a strategy guaranteed to lose in the long run can actually be a winner when you look closer and manage your winners. Learning this twist will multiply your chances of being profitable.
A common question we get at tastylive is, “How is it possible to be profitable when losers can be so much larger than my winners?” Those asking the question perform some simple math and the result appears to be a losing strategy.
A trader who sells a spread for one third of the width has a probability of profit of approximately 70% according to our studies. Using a $1 wide spread the math seems to indicate a loser after factoring in commissions. Note that all the math below assumes a $6 round trip commission.
It appears that for every 10 trades there will be $33 at max win and $66 at max loss. This results in a loss. (7 x $33) - (3 x $67) = -$30
We also believe in managing winners at 50% of max profit and this makes things seem worse. (7 x $17) - (3 x $67) = -$142
There are two problems with this logic. First not all trades result in the max profit or loss. Second, and much more importantly, managing winning trades increases the overall win rate of the strategy.
A table was displayed showing that managing winners increases the overall win rate of the strategy. The table showed the win rate on a ⅓ width Iron Condor, ½ width Iron Condor and a 1 Standard Deviation Strangle (SD). The table included the expected and actual when managed at 50% of max profit.
Using the win rates that result from managing winners we see a different result. (8.8 x $17) - (1.2 x $67) = $9
Watch this segment of “Options Jive” with Tom Sosnoff and Tony Battista for the takeaways plus other information on the mechanics of risk and reward and how a high probability trade strategy can be profitable even with losses that are larger than winners and how managing winners improves the win rate and probability of profit (POP) and puts the math in your favor.
This video and its content are provided solely by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”) and are for informational and educational purposes only. tastylive was previously known as tastytrade, Inc. (“tastytrade”). This video and its content were created prior to the legal name change of tastylive. As a result, this video may reference tastytrade, its prior legal name.