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What's Your Assumption?

What's Your Assumption: Mixed Results as Precious Metals Crash 5-6%

| Jan 7, 2026
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    What's Your Assumption?

    What's Your Assumption: Mixed Results as Precious Metals Crash 5-6%

    Jan 7, 2026
    Hosts Nick and Tony conducted a challenging What's Your Assumption session with five executions out of ten submissions as wide markets and poor liquidity forced multiple passes. The CMG laddered puts from AJ in LA positioned for choppy pre-earnings action using February 37.5 and March 35 strikes at $2.70 total, with Tony noting the stock's 30-60 range and decent 0.40 market correlation making it suitable despite his product hatred. The EMU 400-430 call ratio at $2.14 from Jack in Philly demonstrated price discovery as Tony started at $2.10 (mid $1.90) and got price-improved fill as stock rallied, with discussion of defensive adjustments if trade goes wrong (selling puts or put spreads without adding buying power). Multiple passes highlighted liquidity challenges including GDX ($2-wide markets on $86 stock), LRCX iron fly (February earnings with $3-wide markets), Lockheed Martin ($2-wide markets with single-digit volume), and AVGO 400-405 tight call ratio deemed "impossible" - Nick advocating for wider spreads versus tight $5 ratios. The session featured successful iBit laddered puts closure for $2 profit after overnight 8.5% Intel move, with Tony praising the "amazing" volatility and movement in Bitcoin options.

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