All Eyes on Ozempic: Novo Nordisk Set to Report Earnings Wednesday

The company will announce Q2 results amid the obesity drug craze and competitive pressure

• Novo Nordisk will hold its Q2 FY2025 earnings call on Wednesday, before the market opens.
• The company s having a terrible year, currently trading at three-year lows.
• Factors that could move the stock include news about its manufacturing pipeline, information on oral semaglutide development and details on the new CEO’s plans for growth.

Consensus analyst estimates for Novo Nordisk (NVO) earnings per share and revenue land at $0.92 and $11.9 billion, respectively. This revenue estimate falls directly in line with the reported Q1 revenue of $11.9 billion, which came in higher than consensus estimates of $11.7 billion. 

This revenue estimate is aligned with Q1’s report despite strong sales momentum in Ozempic and Wegovy. That’s because NVO slashed its full-year guidance in that same earnings report. Growth guidance was dropped from 16%-24% all the way to just 8%-14%, and the company also flagged a slowdown in US demand amid pricing pressures and increased competition. 

Shares in NVO have absolutely cratered in 2025, currently down almost 45% year-to-date, and down nearly 70% from June 2024 highs. These abysmal numbers mark a three-year low for the company. 

Pipeline promise and a new CEO: Signs of a rebound?

Despite its weak performance in the last year, a number of catalysts could push NVO higher following the report on Wednesday morning. Perhaps most notably, the company has landed on a new CEO, Maziar Mike Doustdar, who has highlighted his sense of urgency and desire to push for improved commercial and operational execution to regain lost market share. 

Beyond the C-suite shakeup, Novo Nordisk also intends to present nearly 30 research abstracts at the upcoming American Diabetes Association congress, including higher-dose Wegovy data and other pipeline developments that could revive enthusiasm for the company. They have also recently acquired Catalent facilities and made other manufacturing investments in an attempt to ease supply chain challenges that previously affected uptake. 

Besides those upgrades to existing cash cows, Novo Nordisk also has been developing oral semaglutide for some time. Any positive updates on this front, particularly regarding CariSeme or amycretin, could revive growth forecasts and provide long-term upside. 

Can Novo Nordisk hold the line against growing risk?

While there’s no shortage of bullish factors surrounding NVO, the bearish factors are just as numerous. The most glaring of this group is stiff and ever-increasing competition from Eli Lilly (LLY), particularly in the weight loss market. Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound have shown better weight loss results and fewer side effects, and projections indicate they will surpass NVO in obesity treatment market share by the end of the year. 

While competitive headwinds are the primary issue plaguing NVO, they’re not the only issue. Regulatory and pricing pressure are also weighing the company down, with the Trump administration placing great emphasis on lowering drug prices and establishing new regulations throughout the pharmaceutical industry. 

Additionally, with downward revisions already in place and operational execution under heightened scrutiny, any further forward guidance disappointments could shake investors’ confidence and drive NVO shares down even lower. 

Valuation compression and what traders are watching

Just over a year ago, Novo Nordisk was Europe’s most valuable company, with a market cap in excess of €615 billion. It has since shed about 70% of its market cap, currently trading around mid-2022 levels despite obesity and diabetes products still fueling growth. 

Recent earnings reports have been mixed, as have NVO’s subsequent moves. Following the Q4 2024 earnings beat, the stock jumped almost 2% but fell in the following days to unchanged and then into the red. After the earnings beat in Q1 2025, shares fell about 4% over the following days, primarily because of the lowered forward guidance. 

Despite these setbacks, NVO trades at a forward P/E of just 14x, which is far lower than its peers historically. Implied volatility and analyst sentiment both remain cautious until the pipeline narrative stabilizes, which leaves room for an upside surprise but also could indicate a continued slow bleed in the coming months without any changes. 

This earnings call comes at a pivotal moment for Novo Nordisk. It still leads the obesity and diabetes category, but market expectations have shifted dramatically. If the company can provide clarity on pipeline progress, margin stabilization and operational execution under new leadership, it may begin a reversal from its deep trough. But if competition from Lilly intensifies or guidance remains subdued, the case for further downside is strong.

Gus Downing is host of the tastylive Network show Risk and Reward. @GainsByGus

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