Why I’m Bullish on Eli Lilly

The company’s GLP-1 drugs aren’t just for weight loss or control of diabetes — they also disrupt the alcohol industry

• GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy and Zepbound are revolutionizing weight loss and diabetes care.
• But they’re also making users less likely to drink alcohol.
• That suppression of the urge to imbibe could affect the spirits and beer business.

A major shift happening in consumer behavior — and it’s not coming from TikTok trends or celebrity endorsements. It’s coming from the doctor’s office.

GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy and Zepbound are revolutionizing weight loss and diabetes care, but they’re also disrupting legacy industries in ways many didn’t anticipate. One of the most surprising side effects? People are drinking less alcohol — and this is starting to hit the bottom line of publicly traded spirits and beer companies.

At the same time, pharmaceutical companies leading the GLP-1 charge — particularly Eli Lilly (LLY) — are surging. In this post, I’ll break down what’s happening in the alcohol industry, the science behind shifts in GLP-1 demand and why I’m expressing a bullish thesis on Lilly using a credit spread strategy in the options market.

Takeaways

GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are triggering a drop in cravings for alcohol, a side effect now widely documented by users and researchers.

Alcohol industry leaders like Diageo and Constellation Brands are starting to see weakness in demand as younger consumers drink less.

Eli Lilly, the maker of Zepbound, is emerging as a market leader with strong growth in revenue and a robust drug pipeline.

Elevated implied volatility (IV Rank ~40) makes Lilly an ideal candidate for a premium-selling strategy.

I’m selling the $710/$700 bull put spread in the July 18 expiration cycle, targeting continued upside in the company while keeping risk defined.

GLP-1s: A health craze hits the bar scene

GLP-1 agonists were initially developed to manage diabetes but have quickly become some of the most in-demand weight-loss tools on the market. The drugs — which include Ozempic from Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Zepbound from Eli Lilly — work by suppressing appetite, improving insulin sensitivity and slowing digestion.

What’s lesser known is that they also suppress dopamine-driven behaviors — like drinking alcohol.

In a recent Fortune article, users report feeling indifferent to alcohol — even those who previously drank regularly. Clinical research is beginning to back that up, showing a measurable reduction in cravings.

And Wall Street is starting to catch on.

Bloomberg reported reported in April that some analysts believe GLP-1 drugs could drive a multi-year decline in alcohol consumption, much like smoking did after the 90s. In other words, this isn’t a fad — it’s a macro shift.

Companies like Diageo (DEO), Brown-Forman (BF.B) and Molson Coors (TAP) have either reported or hinted at slowdowns in demand, especially in the US. That creates downside risk in traditional alcohol stocks — but it also opens up opportunity on the other side.

The bull case for Eli Lilly

While consumer companies are bracing for headwinds, Eli Lilly is enjoying tailwinds.

Zepbound, Lilly’s flagship GLP-1 drug for obesity, is rapidly gaining traction — both in prescriptions and market share. Revenue from its diabetes and obesity portfolio has soared, and new pipeline drugs are in development to solidify its leadership.

Meanwhile, the stock is technically strong, trading in a consistent uptrend and making higher lows across weekly timeframes. Combine that with an IV Rank around 40, and the setup becomes ideal for premium sellers looking for high-probability trades.

My trade: Bull put vertical spread

I’m bullish on Lilly and expressing that view using a $710/$700 bull put spread in the July 18 expiration cycle:

Defined risk: $10 wide vertical

Credit received: Approximately $3.00–$3.50 (will vary with market conditions)

Max loss: $700 per contract (if LLY closes below $700)

Max profit: The credit received, as long as LLY stays above $710

This trade aligns with my thesis that Lilly will benefit from structural tailwinds related to the obesity epidemic, consumer health shifts and weakening demand for alcohol. It also allows me to participate without needing the company to explode higher — just stay above $710.

Final thoughts

The GLP-1 story is still being written — but the early chapters are already causing waves. The same drugs helping people lose weight and change habits are reshaping entire industries.

While that means trouble for some — like spirits and beer companies — it spells long-term opportunity for pharmaceutical leaders like Eli Lilly. I’m using defined-risk, premium-collecting strategies to gain exposure in a way that respects volatility while still capitalizing on the trend.

Errol Coleman appears on the tastylive network shows Today’s Assignment and Trades on the Go.

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