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AMD Earnings Preview - Another Strong Report Ahead?

By:Mike Butler

Advanced Micro Devices will report quarterly earnings on Feb 4 after the market closes

  • Markets are expecting volatility, with just over an 8% stock price expected move
  • AMD has exceeded earnings-per-share (EPS) and revenue estimates three quarters in a row
  • AMD is expected to announce an EPS of $1.09 on $7.53 billion in revenue, both higher figures than last quarter


Advanced Micro Devices Earnings Preview

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is set to report quarterly earnings on Tuesday, Feb. 4 after the stock market closes. There couldn't be more uncertainty in the space after the DeepSeek announcement, Tariff fears, and broad-scale market selloff to start the trading week. The options market is pricing in a +-8% stock price move for AMD this week, which puts the stock on the higher end of the range for implied volatility ahead of an earnings announcement.

Advanced Micro Devices is expected to announce an earnings-per-share (EPS) of $1.09 on $7.53 billion in revenue.


Advanced Micro Devices


AMD Stock has had a bumpy ride as of late, with a lot of question marks around the future of the AI space and who might take hold of lingering marketshare. Seemingly bulletproof competitors like NVIDIA (NVDA) are down significantly the past few weeks, and AMD is no different. After reaching a high of $227.30 in 2024, the stock has fallen hard to a new price of around $114 per share. The past few months of trading represents the lowest the stock has traded since November of 2023. It seems trouble could be brewing for Advanced Micro Devices, and the implied volatility of the options market being so high confirms the uncertainty for AMD.

Jean Hu, AMD CFO, offered words of encouragement during the last earnings call:

“We are pleased with our execution in the third quarter, delivering strong year-over-year expansion in gross margin and earnings per share...”


"...We are on-track to deliver record annual revenue for 2024 based on significant growth in our Data Center and Client segments.”

It is interesting to see very strong earnings reports from AMD, with three consecutive EPS estimate beats. In addition, AMD has raised EPS estimates three quarters in a row as well. It seems the company is getting more efficient and effective, and yet the stock price is well off the highs. It feels like something's gotta give - we may be in for a very bleak earnings report to pair with a depressed stock price, or another strong earnings report that may result in the stock finally rallying off of lows. With that said, we've seen plenty of earnings calls from companies that post great numbers and the stock still sells off. This is the nature of the beast with earnings trades, and this true uncertaintly aligns with high implied volatility in the options market.


 strong earnings reports from AMD


We look to the options market for context around the implied volatility of the stock price for specific timeframes. With AMD announcing earnings on Tuesday, we can check out the weekly options market for an estimate of the implied stock price move.

We're currently seeing an expected move of +-$9.92 for this week, which is over 8% of the current stock price of $114. This is on the higher end of earnings announcements for companies that typically land between 5-10% of the notional value of the stock price. To emphasize this point further, we can see just a +-$17.51 implied stock price move for the April options cycle that is 73 days to expiration.

In other words, over 50% of the expected move priced into the next 73 days is priced into this week's earnings call. If that doesn't scream high implied volatility, I don't know what will!

All eyes will be on AMD on Tuesday after the market closes as they release quarterly earnings and give us more detail related to their 2025 outlook.

Bullish on AMD Stock for Earnings

If you're bullish on AMD stock for earnings, you're looking for another strong earnings report that exceeds EPS and revenue estimates. With all of this negative press around AMD, if they can post another strong quarter and give plenty of optimistic tone during the earnings call, we could see the stock price finally rise from the recent lows.

Bearish on AMD Stock for Earnings

If you're bearish on AMD stock for earnings, you likely think this is the end of the road for previous reports that did well. After all, higher EPS and revenue estimates make it tougher to post a really strong number, so a miss in either of these categories could confirm the price action we've seen in AMD stock over the past few weeks.

I expect nothing but fireworks in AMD stock after the close on Tuesday, and we'll be taking a look at the options market for earnings strategies at 11am CST on Options Trading Concepts Live. Don't miss the segment on tastylive for AMD earnings, or any other earnings this week for that matter!


Mike Butlertastylive director of market intelligence, has been in the markets and trading for a decade. He appears on Options Trading Concepts Live, airing Monday-Friday. @tradermikeyb  

For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro. 

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