Apple Earnings Preview: Can the Stock Rebound?

The company plans to move production of American-market iPhones from China to India

• Apple reports quarterly earnings after the market closes Thursday.
• The company is expected to report earnings per share of $1.62 on $94.19 billion in revenue. Both estimates are much lower than last quarter.
• By the end of 2026, Apple plans to move production of American-market iPhones from China to India.

Apple (AAPL) is yet another Magnificent Seven stock that will report earnings this week, and the implied stock price range is relatively low. Maybe that’s because Apple plans to move the manufacturing of iPhones sold in the United States from China to India by the end of 2026. That will help alleviate the current Chinese tariff pressure cooker situation we're witnessing right now. With that said, earnings estimates are significantly lower than last quarter, and Apple has not missed earnings-per-share (EPS) or revenue estimates in over a year.

On May 1 after the market closes, Apple is expected to report earnings per share of $1.62 on $94.19 billion in revenue.

AAPL stock opened 2025 trading at $248.93, just off the all-time high of $260.10 realized in December 2024. Like many other household-name tech stocks, AAPL stock plummeted through the tariff announcement saga and continued uncertainty, falling as low as $169.21. The stock currently sits well off the lows at $211 per share. Still, current implied volatility through the end of the year gives us a +/- $39.40 stock price range, which does not bring us back to all-time highs.

A few months ago, Apple CEO Tim Cook pledged to invest $500 billion in the US economy, creating 20,000 new jobs over the next four years. The plan is to build an AI mega-center in Houston to supplement artificial intelligence efforts.

In the last earnings call, Tim Cook offered positive words: “Today Apple is reporting our best quarter ever, with revenue of $124.3 billion, up 4% from a year ago."

He went on to day that “we were thrilled to bring customers our best-ever lineup of products and services during the holiday season. Through the power of Apple silicon, we’re unlocking new possibilities for our users with Apple Intelligence, which makes apps and experiences even better and more personal. And we’re excited that Apple Intelligence will be available in even more languages this April.”

Observing the implied volatility in the options market enables us to put context around the expected move for the earnings announcement and beyond. This week, we're looking at a +/- $8.61 stock price range for AAPL. With the stock around $211 per share, this puts Apple earnings on the lower end of the range at 4% of the notional value of the stock price. We typically see 5%-10% ranges for earnings, which speaks to the uncertainty and inability to speak on forecasts and production with tariffs still looming.

Looking to July 2025, we can see a +/- $22.81 stock price expected move. With this earnings announcement only accounting for about a third of the expected move through summer, we can see how the market is pricing in much more volatility in the next few months and almost writing off this earnings announcement for stock price movement. Put differently, the inevitable tariffs will play a larger role than this earnings announcement.

Bullish on Apple stock for earnings

If you're bullish on AAPL stock for earnings, you're looking for an EPS and revenue earnings beat, along with more information on how the tech giant may be able to escape steep China tariffs by shifting production to India. If Apple execs can pull this off, this could really help their bottom line and set the company up for continued growth in iPhone sales, AI and more. The lack of implied volatility for this earnings announcement could help keep the stock price stable if the stock lands within the implied range, which could be good for keeping longer-term investors on board.

Bearish on Apple stock for earnings

If you're bearish on AAPL stock for earnings, you're looking for the first earnings miss in a year. Lack of clarity around future developments or even a 'wait-and-see' mentality on the earnings call could turn off a lot of investors who are looking for details around specific projects, production plans and more.

Regardless of your sentiment, Join us on Options Trading Concepts Live at 11 a.m. CDT on Thursday for a deeper look at options trading strategies for Apple earnings.

Mike Butler, tastylive director of market intelligence, has been in the markets and trading for a decade. He appears on Options Trading Concepts Live, airing Monday-Friday. @tradermikeyb  

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